MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN22 levels openResearch 1d ago
The Invite 64%I Play Rocky 56%All of a Sudden 37%Fjord 34%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
22 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
22 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
The Odyssey97%95%−2
La Bola Negra95%92%−3
Wild Horse Nine89%91%+2
Dune: Part Three85%85%0
You Can See Everything77%47%−30
The Debut76%72%−4
+16 more options
AI analysts' average · The Odyssey
95%
2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
The InviteYes wolfmoonwolfmoon: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 wolfmoonwolfmoon: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 · 2
You Can See EverythingYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
I Play RockyNo QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 2
Disclosure DayNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 2
La Bola NegraYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Dune: Part ThreeNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Project Hail MaryNo jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
All of a SuddenNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
DiggerYes wolfmoonwolfmoon: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 wolfmoonwolfmoon: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
The Adventures of Cliff BoothNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
The Social ReckoningNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
11 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- The Odyssey resolves Yes if the listed film is nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards when the nominees are announced (scheduled for January 21, 2027; ceremony March 14, 2027). Otherwise it resolves No, including if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The sources are AMPAS/Oscars.org, and credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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