MarketsAI
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN15 optionsResearch 2d ago
Anthropic 97%OpenAI 2%Google 1%Meta <1%
15 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
15 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic97%91%−6
OpenAI2%4%+2
Google1%2%+1
Meta<1%1%0
Z.ai———
SpaceXAI———
+9 more options
AI analysts' average · Anthropic
91%
6 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
AnthropicYes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 · 2
OpenAIYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
GoogleYes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
MetaYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
11 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Anthropic resolves Yes if the company that owns the top-ranked non-'AutoEval' model on the Agent Arena leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, 'Agent Arena' tab, filtered for 'Models') is Anthropic when checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Ties on rank go to the model listed higher on the leaderboard. Any remaining tie goes to alphabetical order of company names in this market group. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, the market stays open until it returns.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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