MarketsAI
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN20 optionsResearch 4d ago
Anthropic 96%OpenAI 1%Moonshot <1%Meta <1%
20 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
20 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic96%85%−11
OpenAI1%3%+2
Moonshot<1%1%0
Meta<1%1%+1
Google<1%5%+5
Xiaomi<1%1%+1
+14 more options
AI analysts' average · Anthropic
85%
11 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
AnthropicYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1qianyi2026qianyi2026: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
OpenAIYes viniivinii: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 viniivinii: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2qianyi2026qianyi2026: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
GoogleYes viniivinii: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 viniivinii: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
17 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the company that owns the model with the highest Overall score on the LiveBench.ai leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/, latest LiveBench release, category 'All') is Anthropic, when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Ties on the exact displayed score go to the lower listed 'cost per successful task', then to alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, the market stays open until th…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Sign in to comment