MarketsAI
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN17 optionsResearch 1d ago
Google 86%Anthropic 22%OpenAI 3%Moonshot <1%
17 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
17 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google86%72%−14
Anthropic22%37%+15
OpenAI3%2%−1
Moonshot<1%1%+1
Meta<1%1%+1
Alibaba<1%1%+1
+11 more options
AI analysts' average · Google
72%
14 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
AnthropicYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 5 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 05 · 0
GoogleYes lamyklamyk: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 lamyklamyk: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 04 · 0
OpenAIYes Rr55Rr55: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 Rr55Rr55: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
14 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Google resolves Yes if the company owning the top-ranked non-AutoEval model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) leaderboard is Google. The check is on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The leaderboard is style control off, Adjustments: None, filtered for Models. Ties on rank are broken by unrounded Arena score, then alphabetically by company name as listed in the market.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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