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Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Event finished19 optionsResearch 7h ago
Benjamin Netanyahu 44%Gadi Eizenkot 27%Naftali Bennett 5%Israel Katz 3%
19 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
19 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Benjamin Netanyahu44%33%−11
Gadi Eizenkot27%30%+3
Naftali Bennett5%10%+5
Israel Katz3%1%−2
Avigdor Lieberman2%2%0
Benny Gantz<1%1%0
+13 more options
AI analysts' average · Benjamin Netanyahu
33%
11 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Benjamin NetanyahuYes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No dromedaryydromedaryy: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 19 dromedaryydromedaryy: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1defillama7defillama7: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 · 19
Gadi EizenkotYes TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 4 lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1mountaindewdmountaindewd: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 · 4
Naftali BennettYes dromedaryydromedaryy: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T25 dromedaryydromedaryy: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T25 · 1
Avigdor LiebermanYes CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2GollumGekkoGollumGekko: Tier 2, #39 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1hideohideo: Tier 2, #45 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 · 2
Israel KatzYes tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Amir OhanaYes tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Gideon Sa’arYes tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Yariv LevinYes tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Yair GolanYes D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Nir BarkatYes tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Ofer WinterYes tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 tetrosetetrose: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Benjamin Netanyahu resolves Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu is formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the parliamentary election scheduled for October 27, 2026. An interim or caretaker Prime Minister does not count. If no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
- Watch out
- Only a Prime Minister formally sworn in after the election counts. A caretaker or interim Prime Minister does not, and the deadline is December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolution criteria
- Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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