Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN13 levels openResearch 1d ago
Pete Hegseth 34%Susie Wiles 33%Kristi Noem 25%Howard Lutnick 16%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
13 levels open · by chance
13 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · Pete Hegseth
11 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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- In plain English
- Pete Hegseth resolves Yes if it is announced, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, that Pete Hegseth will leave the Trump Administration, or if they otherwise cease to be a member of it by then. An announced resignation or removal resolves the market immediately, whatever its effective date. Otherwise it resolves No. The administration means people formally appointed by Trump to federal roles, including Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior advisors, ambassadors and White House staff. T…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
