MarketsAI
Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 optionsResearch 6d ago
5-7 70%8-10 27%11-13 <1%<5 <1%
5 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<5<1%47%+47
5-770%70%0
8-1027%22%−5
11-13<1%1%+1
14+<1%1%+1
AI analysts' average · 5-7
70%
level with the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
5-7Yes gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C110xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C11: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
8-10Yes gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C110xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C11: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C110xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C11: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
11-13Yes gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Yes if the number of October 2026 days whose claude.ai daily box on status.claude.com/uptime is any colour other than green (once finalized) falls in the 5–7 range this market covers. Otherwise No. If the last day isn't finalized by the end of 7 Nov (ET), it resolves on the days finalized by then.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
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