Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level openResearch 2d ago
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? 9%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
1 level open
1 option trading.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
1 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab to a qualifying retail customer (the general public, in a bona fide retail transaction) at a base price of $30,000 or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Sales to employees, sales for internal fleet or testing use, preorders, deposits, announced price targets and prototype deliveries do not count. Official Tesla discounts count toward the base price. Tesla is the primary source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” “Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model. A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price. Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs. The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
