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Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Jan 2, 2027

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Iran nuclear test before 2027? 3%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Iran nuclear test before 2027?3%−0.8 pts—0 · 1

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News

1d
Shut ACs, hide for 24 hours: Iran issues nuclear survival guide amid US strike threat
India Today

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Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 16h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

Iran nuclear test before 2027?No alwaysOn T201 alwaysOn T20 · 1

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

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