MarketsGeopolitics
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN3 levels open1 closed
December 31 98%November 30 96%November 15 92%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
3 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed level
3 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
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News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
December 31Yes eCasheCash: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No adenakoz1adenakoz1: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 eCasheCash: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1CarCar: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 adenakoz1adenakoz1: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
November 30Yes CarCar: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 101456101456: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CarCar: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 101456101456: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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