MarketsGeopolitics
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN3 levels openResearch 7d ago
December 31, 2027 31%June 30, 2027 34%Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? 7%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
3 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
December 31, 202731%+1.0 pts—none
3 options trading.
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes CarCar: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No CompulsiveGamblerCompulsiveGambler: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 CarCar: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 CompulsiveGamblerCompulsiveGambler: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2alwaysOnalwaysOn: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Ukraine signs a written instrument that has both Ukraine and Russia as parties. It must either establish a ceasefire or end hostilities, or commit both sides to a defined process toward ending the war. Only Ukraine's wet-ink or official electronic signature is required. Local, temporary or issue-specific arrangements do not qualify, and neither do unsigned agreements. Otherwise No.
- Watch out
- A localized ceasefire such as the Oleshky one does not qualify, and neither does any unsigned arrangement. Only a signed document covering the whole war that sets a ceasefire or a defined peace process counts.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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