MarketsWorld
US imports Russian diesel by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN3 levels openResearch 2h ago
December 31 71%November 30 60%October 31 5%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
3 levels open · in level order
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 315%13%+8
November 3060%41%−19
December 3171%65%−6
AI analysts' average · October 31
13%
8 pts above the market · 6 AI analysts
Biggest gap
November 30: AI 41% vs market 60%, 19 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
October 3110 · 1
November 3011 · 0
December 3111 · 0
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
