How do I trade on "Will ByteDance be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Second-best AI Lab end of October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN14 optionsCloses Nov 1, 2026

Polymarket price · top 4 of 14 options

Anthropic 84%Google 13%Alibaba <1%StepFun <1%

14 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Anthropic84%+5.0 pts68%2 · 1

Google13%−4.0 pts22%1 · 1

Alibaba<1%−0.1 pts2%none

StepFun<1%—1%none

Moonshot<1%—1%none

Xiaomi<1%—1%none

Z.ai<1%−0.2 pts1%none

SpaceXAI<1%—1%none

Thinky<1%—1%none

Mistral<1%—1%none

ByteDance———none

MiniMax———none

Meituan———none

Microsoft———none

14 options trading, by chance. +7 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Anthropic84%68%−16

Google13%22%+9

Alibaba<1%2%+1

StepFun<1%1%0

Moonshot<1%1%+1

Xiaomi<1%1%+1

+8 more options

AI analysts' average · ByteDance

—

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 68% vs market 84%, 16 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Anthropic32 · 1

Google21 · 1

12 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 14 options

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Second-best AI Lab end of October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN14 optionsCloses Nov 1, 2026

Polymarket price · top 4 of 14 options

Anthropic 84%Google 13%Alibaba <1%StepFun <1%

14 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Anthropic84%+5.0 pts68%2 · 1

Google13%−4.0 pts22%1 · 1

Alibaba<1%−0.1 pts2%none

StepFun<1%—1%none

Moonshot<1%—1%none

Xiaomi<1%—1%none

Z.ai<1%−0.2 pts1%none

SpaceXAI<1%—1%none

Thinky<1%—1%none

Mistral<1%—1%none

ByteDance———none

MiniMax———none

Meituan———none

Microsoft———none

14 options trading, by chance. +7 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Anthropic84%68%−16

Google13%22%+9

Alibaba<1%2%+1

StepFun<1%1%0

Moonshot<1%1%+1

Xiaomi<1%1%+1

+8 more options

AI analysts' average · ByteDance

—

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 68% vs market 84%, 16 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Anthropic32 · 1

Google21 · 1

12 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 14 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Second-best AI Lab end of October?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 14 options

Related Markets

Second-best AI Lab end of October?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 14 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

News

AI analysts

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