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MarketsAI

Second-best AI Lab end of October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN14 optionsCloses Nov 1, 2026

Polymarket price · top 4 of 14 options

Anthropic 84%Google 13%Alibaba <1%StepFun <1%

14 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Anthropic84%+4.5 pts68%2 · 1
Google13%−4.0 pts22%1 · 1
Alibaba<1%−0.1 pts2%none
StepFun<1%—1%none
Moonshot<1%—1%none
Xiaomi<1%—1%none
Z.ai<1%−0.2 pts1%none
SpaceXAI<1%—1%none
Thinky<1%—1%none
Mistral<1%—1%none
ByteDance———none
MiniMax———none
Meituan———none
Microsoft———none

14 options trading, by chance. +7 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic84%68%−16
Google13%22%+9
Alibaba<1%2%+1
StepFun<1%1%0
Moonshot<1%1%+1
Xiaomi<1%1%+1
+8 more options

AI analysts' average · MiniMax

—

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 68% vs market 84%, 16 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 4h
    MiniMax Shares Fall Below IPO Price Amid AI Sector Sell-Off
    Caixin Global
  • 4h
    MiniMax Falls Below IPO Price Nine Months After Listing; Founder Yan Junjie's Net Worth Down More Than HK$90 Billion From Peak
    BigGo Finance
  • 11h
    MINIMAX-W: What Is Next After M3.1-Flash/Space Bunny? We Stay Short
    Smartkarma
  • 17h
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash vs Qwen 3.8 Flash: Two Designs, One Price
    OrcaRouter
  • 17h
    MiniMax Erases Post-IPO Gain as AI Model Rivalry Intensifies
    Bloomberg.com
  • 17h
    MiniMax Named Inferact an API Launch Partner for M3.1 Flash. The Model Did Not Change — the Serving Layer Did.
    OrcaRouter
  • 19h
    Kling 4.0 vs MiniMax H3: Scored, Priced, Open — and Older
    OrcaRouter
  • 1d
    MiniMax's Morgan Suo: A Faster Model Only Pays Off If the Whole Job Gets Faster
    BigGo Finance
  • 1d
    Why is MiniMax stock climbing today? By Investing.com
    Investing.com South Africa
  • 1d
    MINIMAX-USD Interactive Stock Chart | MiniMax Group (Derivatives) USD Stock
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Buzzy Launches MiniMax H3 Max for Real-Time Video Streaming Workflows
    USA Today
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash vs GLM-5.3-Flash: Same Price, Different Limits
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash vs DeepSeek V4.1 Flash: Only Two Rows Line Up
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash vs. DeepSeek V4.1 Flash: Nur zwei Zeilen stimmen überein
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    MiniMax Cuts API Prices With New Flash AI Model
    Caixin Global
  • 2d
    MiniMax, DeepSeek Unveil Faster, Cheaper AI Models
    조선일보
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash Hits 93% Hallucination Rate [2026]
    shattered.io
  • 2d
    China’s MiniMax Says Its New AI Model Cuts Agent Costs by 70%
    TechRepublic
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash: 70% Cheaper, Accuracy Doubts [2026]
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash vs DeepSeek V4 Flash: Which to Call
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash vs. DeepSeek V4 Flash: Welchen aufrufen?
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    Is China's Domestic AI Cost-Performance King About to Be Replaced? MiniMax Emerges as a Real Game-Changer
    36Kr
  • 2d
    MiniMax Launches M3.1 Flash, Claims 70% Lower Costs for AI Agent Tasks
    Technology Org
  • 2d
    Hong Kong Stocks Fall as Oil Prices Climb; MiniMax Slips on New AI Model Launch
    marketscreener.com
  • 2d
    MiniMax Releases M3.1 Flash AI Model With Substantial Cost Cuts and Better Performance
    WinBuzzer
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash Arrives With a Faster, Cheaper Vision for AI Agents
    Kingy AI
  • 2d
    MiniMax announces new AI model 'MiniMax M3.1 Flash,' enhancing AI agent performance while reducing usage costs by 70%.
    GIGAZINE
  • 2d
    沙特 Humain 发布基于 MiniMax M3 的阿拉伯语模型
    CryptoRank
  • 2d
    Within less than 72 hours, both DeepSeek and MiniMax submitted their entries, as Flash models collectively challenge flagship offerings.
    富途牛牛
  • 2d
    MiniMax Releases M3.1 Flash Model, Nearly Tripling Inference Speed and Cutting Costs by 70%
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    MiniMax Space Bunny Reveal: M3.1 Flash, 200T Tokens
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash Officially Launched: 200+ Output TPS, 50% Price Cut, Competes Head-to-Head With DeepSeek
    36Kr
  • 2d
    MiniMax Advances AI with M3.1 Flash Model, Boosting Speed and Re
    GuruFocus
  • 2d
    MiniMax Launches New AI Model With 70% Lower Usage Costs
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 2d
    Viral Mysterious Space Rabbit Unveiled: Originated From MiniMax's New Model
    36Kr
  • 2d
    DeepSeek & MiniMax Unveil New AI Models in 72 Hours: Flash Series Challenges Flagship-Tier Generative AI
    36Kr
  • 2d
    An Explosive Conspiracy Theory Suggests China MiniMax Sniped Artificial Analysi Evaluation Queries To Make Its Otherwise Shitty M3 . 1 Flash Model Look Good
    wccftech.com
  • 2d
    MiniMax launches M3.1 Flash for coding, agentic tasks
    Tech in Asia
  • 2d
    DeepSeek ranks first, MiniMax comes second, the two domestic Flash twin stars are taking the entire industry by storm.
    36Kr
  • 2d
    Xiao K Morning Brief | NVIDIA GTC Berlin Conference即将开幕 MiniMax M3.1 Flash Launched
    富途牛牛
  • 2d
    MiniMax Launches M3.1 Flash, Claiming 3x Faster Inference and 70% Lower Agent Task Costs
    XenoSpectrum
  • 2d
    MiniMax Slashes New Model Prices by 70% as Agent Race Enters Payoff Phase
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    MiniMax launches M3.1 Flash model, says it cuts AI agent costs by 70%
    SiliconANGLE
  • 2d
    MiniMax just halved its token prices. Your AI agent bill may not follow.
    The New Stack
  • 3d
    MiniMax's new M3.1 Flash beats DeepSeek and Opus 5 on a key business benchmark at lower cost — but with a high hallucination rate
    VentureBeat
  • 3d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash Launched With 200 Trillion Tokens of Proof. The Name Came Second.
    Forkast News
  • 3d
    MiniMax M3 . 1 Flash : Redefining Agent Performance and Cost - MiniMax Research
    minimax.io
  • 3d
    MiniMax-M3.1-Flash vs the Preview: What Actually Changed
    OrcaRouter
  • 3d
    MiniMax-M3.1-Flash Scores 42 on the Intelligence Index — and Costs $0.22 a Task
    OrcaRouter
  • 3d
    MiniMax-M3.1-Flash vs MiniMax-M3: Half the Price, None of the Weights
    OrcaRouter
  • 3d
    MiniMax-M3.1-Flash vs MiniMax-M3: la mitad del precio, ninguno de los pesos
    OrcaRouter
  • 3d
    MiniMax-M3.1-Flash vs MiniMax-M3: Harga vs Bobot
    OrcaRouter
  • 3d
    ZenMux Adds MiniMax H3 Fast for Short-Form Video Generation
    Kitsap Sun
  • 3d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash shows China's AI price race has no floor in sight
    The Decoder
  • 3d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash Launches, Cuts AI Costs 70% [2026]
    shattered.io
  • 3d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash Launches: 3x Faster, 70% Cheaper [2026]
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 3d
    MiniMax launches M3 . 1 Flash , with weights due October 23 · Digg
    digg.com
  • 3d
    China’s MiniMax And DeepSeek Have A Compute Capacity Of Sub-100K H100-Equivalent GPUs, And Yet Their Latest Models Continue To Scale The Frontier Curve, With Distillation Failing To Explain This Disparity
    Wccftech
  • 3d
    MiniMax Launches M3.1 Flash, Revealing Space Bunny Stealth Model
    Unite.AI
  • 3d
    The mysterious Space Bunny reveals itself: MiniMax launches M3.1 Flash, cutting agent task costs by 70%
    BigGo Finance
  • 3d
    MiniMax-M3.1-Flash Artificial Analysis Performance and Price Analysis
    artificialanalysis.ai
  • 3d
    MiniMax Just Launched M3.1 Flash: 428B MoE Agentic Model at $0.15/M Input
    MarkTechPost
  • 3d
    MiniMax H3 benchmarks: 40 DiT variants on one RTX 5080, failures included
    phasyn.dev
  • 3d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash: Space Performance and Bunny Speed
    twitter.com
  • 3d
    MiniMax Confirms Space Bunny Identity, M3.1 Flash Set for Official Launch
    BigGo Finance
  • 3d
    China's MiniMax launches updated AI model M3.1 Flash, claims major improvements
    Reuters
  • 3d
    MiniMax launches the M3.1 Flash model with 3x faster speed and 70% lower cost.
    KuCoin
  • 3d
    MiniMax-M3.1-Flash Is in Every Doc and in No Price Row
    OrcaRouter
  • 3d
    MiniMax-M3.1-Flash Now Answers M2.7 Calls (Oct 19)
    OrcaRouter
  • 3d
    MiniMax quietly launches M3.1-Flash after weeks as a mystery Space Bunny model
    Startup Fortune
  • 4d
    What 500 MiniMax Code Tests Revealed About AI Saying "Done"
    defuzex.ai
  • 5d
    MiniMax Group (Derivatives) USD (MINIMAX-USD) cryptocurrency profile and facts
    Yahoo Finance UK
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Anthropic32 · 1
Google21 · 1

12 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 14 options

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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MiniMax · Buy YesOption 12 of 14

Polymarket price · live

Yes0¢
No—
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Before you decide · MiniMax

  • News7 today · latest 4h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.