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MarketsAI

Second-best AI Lab end of October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN14 optionsCloses Nov 1, 2026Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 14 options

Anthropic 84%Google 13%Alibaba <1%StepFun <1%

14 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Anthropic84%+4.5 pts68%2 · 1
Google13%−4.0 pts22%1 · 1
Alibaba<1%−0.1 pts2%none
StepFun<1%—1%none
Moonshot<1%—1%none
Xiaomi<1%—1%none
Z.ai<1%−0.2 pts1%none
SpaceXAI<1%—1%none
Thinky<1%—1%none
Mistral<1%—1%none
ByteDance———none
MiniMax———none
Meituan———none
Microsoft———none

14 options trading, by chance. +7 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic84%68%−16
Google13%22%+9
Alibaba<1%2%+1
StepFun<1%1%0
Moonshot<1%1%+1
Xiaomi<1%1%+1
+8 more options

AI analysts' average · Z.ai

1%

1 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 68% vs market 84%, 16 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 2d
    Who is Yuki Chen, China's 'superstar' hacker who just joined AI leader Z.ai?
    www.scmp.com
  • 2d
    Z.AI founders built models on research tied to an alleged Chinese spy front
    Startup Fortune
  • 2d
    Z.AI Founders Linked to Research Backed by Alleged Chinese Spy Agency
    marketscreener.com
  • 2d
    Z.AI Founders Worked on Research Funded by Institute Cited in UK Spy Alert
    marketscreener.com
  • 2d
    Watch Z.AI Founders Worked With Accused Chinese Spy Group
    Bloomberg.com
  • 2d
    Z.AI Founders Worked on Research Funded by China Institute That UK Tied to Spies
    Bloomberg.com
  • 6d
    Apollo Research flags potential AI safety risk in Z.ai model
    Tech in Asia
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Anthropic32 · 1
Google21 · 1

12 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 14 options

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Z.ai · Buy YesOption 7 of 14

Polymarket price · live

Yes1¢
No100¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Z.ai

  • News0 today · latest 2d
  • AI analysts1% · 1 pts above
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.