MarketsAI
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN12 levels openResearch 2h ago
Anthropic 74%OpenAI 14%Meta 9%xAI 7%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
12 levels open · by chance
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
12 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic74%68%−6
OpenAI14%10%−4
Meta9%9%0
xAI7%5%−2
DeepSeek6%4%−2
Baidu5%3%−2
+6 more options
AI analysts' average · ByteDance
1%
level with the market · 1 AI analyst
Biggest gap
Anthropic: AI 68% vs market 74%, 6 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
OpenAI20 · 2
11 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Sign in to comment
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
