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MarketsAI

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN12 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Anthropic 75%OpenAI 14%Meta 9%xAI 7%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

12 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Anthropic75%+12.0 pts68%none
OpenAI14%+1.0 pts10%0 · 2
Meta9%+0.5 pts9%none
xAI7%—5%none
DeepSeek6%—4%none
Baidu5%—3%none
Alibaba5%—2%none
Microsoft5%—1%none
Moonshot3%—1%none
Mistral3%−0.1 pts1%none
Meituan3%—1%none
ByteDance<1%—1%none

12 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic75%68%−7
OpenAI14%10%−4
Meta9%9%0
xAI7%5%−2
DeepSeek6%4%−2
Baidu5%3%−2
+6 more options

AI analysts' average · Microsoft

1%

4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 68% vs market 75%, 7 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 1h
    Microsoft says its AI tool is better than doctors at diagnosing diseases
    The Verge
  • 2h
    Microsoft, Opella partner on agentic AI content verification platform
    Fierce Healthcare
  • 2h
    Microsoft Warns AI Agents Can't Be Trusted, But Continues Adoption
    TechPowerUp
  • 2h
    Microsoft Contact Center Intelligence Takes Aim at CCaaS AI
    The Futurum Group
  • 2h
    Microsoft blames ConnectWise attacks on Chinese state hacker using ARTEX AI agents
    The Record from Recorded Future News
  • 3h
    New Microsoft guidance warns that “trusted” AI agents carry serious security and safety implications
    Windows Central
  • 4h
    Microsoft launches AI Supercomputer Infrastructure team, led by networking head
    SDxCentral
  • 4h
    Microsoft CCI Challenges the ‘Rip and Replace’ Contact Center Model
    CX Today
  • 4h
    Microsoft working to reduce AI costs , expand ecosystem as global adoption rises : Satya Nadella
    parisguardian.com
  • 4h
    Nvidia & Microsoft unveil AI agents for Windows PCs
    IT Brief Asia
  • 4h
    PLA Partners with Microsoft on Library AI Info Sessions
    Publishers Weekly
  • 5h
    Microsoft Copilot AI Predicts Hyperliquid to Soar to New Highs in Q4
    Cryptonews
  • 5h
    Google and Microsoft Are Giving AI Agents Work Accounts. Who’s Going to Manage Them?
    Inc.com
  • 5h
    Microsoft Says Chinese Hackers Used AI Tool To Breach ConnectWise, Target Hundreds Of Organisations
    NDTV Profit
  • 5h
    ModelOp Takes Control of Enterprise AI Agent Sprawl with Expanded Microsoft and Amazon Integrations
    markets.businessinsider.com
  • 5h
    Microsoft, Google parent and McDonald’s protest new trading plan
    TheStreet
  • 5h
    Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft promise less secrets, more money to data center communities
    Fortune
  • 5h
    Microsoft says China-aligned hackers used AI agents in ConnectWise attack
    The Next Web
  • 6h
    Meta Falls 3% as Higher AI Spending Outlook Overshadows Earnings Beat; Alphabet Dips, Microsoft Holds Steady
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 7h
    China-Linked Hackers Use ARTEX AI to Target 2,250 Microsoft 365 Tenants After ConnectWise Breach
    CyberSecurityNews
  • 7h
    Boehringer Microsoft partner AI-backed clinical development
    Boehringer Ingelheim
  • 7h
    China-linked hackers used agentic AI in attack on 2,250 Microsoft 365 tenants
    CSO Online
  • 8h
    Oracle Vs. Microsoft: How The Wildcard AI Spender Plans to Disrupt
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 8h
    Microsoft is Creating a $700 Billion Moat With Its AI Spend Through 2030
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 8h
    Microsoft: Chinese State Actor Used AI to Compromise ConnectWise Tenants
    Infosecurity Magazine
  • 8h
    Microsoft may finally let you turn off some of Edge’s AI. But don’t celebrate yet
    Digital Trends
  • 8h
    NFL Week 7 predictions by Microsoft Copilot AI for every game
    USA Today
  • 10h
    Satya Nadella Says Microsoft Is Rebuilding Around AI Agents as Trump Pushes ‘Super Intelligence’ — From 1
    Benzinga
  • 19h
    Ex-Marine and Microsoft vets launch Watchtower Labs with $35M to bring AI to military logistics
    GeekWire
  • 22h
    Boeing, Microsoft Aim AI at Airlines’ $3.1 Billion Repair Bill
    PYMNTS.com
  • 2d
    GPT-6.1 Terra is in a Microsoft PR
    twitter.com
  • 2d
    I Talked to Workers at Amazon, Meta, & Microsoft About the AI Watching Them [video]
    www.youtube.com
  • 2d
    Google pushes Chrome on Windows 11, gets away with what Microsoft is slammed for
    www.windowslatest.com
  • 3d
    Microsoft pulls out of UK's largest AI data centre
    www.bbc.co.uk
  • 4d
    Microsoft drops AI datacentre project in Essex over power supply concerns
    www.theguardian.com
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
OpenAI20 · 2

11 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 12 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Microsoft · Buy YesOption 8 of 12

Polymarket price · live

Yes5¢
No96¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Microsoft

  • News30 today · latest 1h
  • AI analysts1% · 4 pts below
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.