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MarketsAI

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN12 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Anthropic 75%OpenAI 14%Meta 9%xAI 7%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

12 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Anthropic75%+11.5 pts68%none
OpenAI14%+1.5 pts10%0 · 2
Meta9%+0.5 pts9%none
xAI7%—5%none
DeepSeek6%—4%none
Baidu5%—3%none
Alibaba5%—2%none
Microsoft5%—1%none
Moonshot3%—1%none
Mistral3%−0.1 pts1%none
Meituan3%—1%none
ByteDance<1%—1%none

12 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic75%68%−7
OpenAI14%10%−4
Meta9%9%0
xAI7%5%−2
DeepSeek6%4%−2
Baidu5%3%−2
+6 more options

AI analysts' average · Mistral

1%

2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 68% vs market 75%, 7 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 14h
    Mistral Voxtral 3: Speech AI Hits $0.0035/Min [2026]
    shattered.io
  • 18h
    CERN e Mistral AI , nasce Flare : lintelligenza artificiale per esplorare i segreti delluniverso
    dazebaonews.it
  • 18h
    DeepSeek vs Mistral Large 4 vs Cohere: 9x Price Gap [2026]
    tech-insider.org
  • 21h
    Mistral AI, NVIDIA Expand Partnership Into Engineering Simulation
    www.tokenpost.com
  • 1d
    Mistral Large 4
    mistral.ai
  • 1d
    CERN Partners With Mistral to Build a New Kind of AI for Physics
    HPCwire
  • 1d
    Mistral and Nvidia want to speed up industrial design with physics AI
    The Decoder
  • 1d
    Mistral Advances AI for Engineering with Nvidia
    mistral.ai
  • 1d
    Ecosia Ditches Mistral, Cuts AI Costs 50% [2026]
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 1d
    GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark vs Vanilla (Mistral-7B-v0.1-Instruct) (JudgeBench)
    BenchLM
  • 1d
    MiMo-V2.6-Pro vs Mistral Small 4 (Reasoning): Comparison
    BenchLM
  • 1d
    Qwen3.5-0.8B Decision Model vs Mistral Small 4 (Reasoning)
    BenchLM
  • 1d
    Clef-Flash vs Mistral 7B v0.3: Benchmarks & Cost
    BenchLM
  • 1d
    GPT Realtime vs Arena-Hard (Mistral-7B-v0.1-Instruct) (JudgeBench)
    BenchLM
  • 1d
    Mistral's Voxtral 3 Lands a #3 Transcribe Model and a $13 Voice
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    Online session: Mistral AI for research at AAU
    Aalborg Universitet
  • 2d
    Claude 4 Sonnet vs Mistral Large 4: Benchmarks & Cost
    BenchLM
  • 2d
    Mistral AI launches Voxtral 3, a full voice agent stack that listens, thinks, and talks in real time
    The Decoder
  • 2d
    Mercury 3 vs Mistral Large 4: Two Unfinished Models and the Promises Attached to Each
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    Mistral AI lance Timestral , une famille de modèles IA de prévision de 209 millions de paramètres qui surpasse le TimesFM - 3 de Google
    intelligence-artificielle.developpez.com
  • 2d
    Mistral AI: Sovereign AI and a €21bn Valuation Push
    AI Magazine
  • 2d
    Crédit Agricole partners with Mistral for industrial-scale AI deployment
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 2d
    GLiNER2.5 small vs Mistral Small 4 (Reasoning): Comparison
    BenchLM
  • 2d
    LongCat-Flash-Lite-Sparse vs Mistral Large 3: Comparison
    BenchLM
  • 2d
    simple-jev · Qwen3.8-27B vs Mistral Large 2: Comparison
    BenchLM
  • 2d
    Mistral Large 3 vs Oracle NLI (BERT base ) binary subset (ContractNLI)
    BenchLM
  • 2d
    CLM-8B vs Mistral 8x7B: Benchmarks & Cost
    BenchLM
  • 2d
    Mistral Small 3.1 vs Zonos 2: Benchmarks & Cost
    BenchLM
  • 3d
    Mistral Timestral: 209M Model Tops Google TimesFM-3 [2026]
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 3d
    Timestral: Mistral's time-series foundation models
    mistral.ai
  • 3d
    Mistral AI Releases Timestral: A 209M Forecasting Model Family That Outperforms Google’s TimesFM-3
    MarkTechPost
  • 4d
    Laya multilingual vs Mistral 8x7B: Benchmarks & Cost
    BenchLM
  • 5d
    GPT-6 Astra vs Mistral Large 4: Benchmarks & Cost
    BenchLM
  • 6d
    Build or surrender in the AI race, Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch tells Europe
    Cybernews
  • 6d
    Timestral open weight timeseries foundation models from Mistral
    huggingface.co
  • 6d
    decider-4b v2 vs Mistral Small 3.1: Benchmarks & Cost
    BenchLM
  • 6d
    Kyutai Pocket TTS vs Mistral 8x7B: Benchmarks & Cost
    BenchLM
  • 6d
    Bev / Bonsai 27B vs Mistral Small 3.1: Benchmarks & Cost
    BenchLM
  • 6d
    Mistral Large 4: 1.05T Params, $1.36/M Pricing
    https://tech-insider.org/
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
OpenAI20 · 2

11 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 12 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Mistral · Buy YesOption 10 of 12

Polymarket price · live

Yes3¢
No98¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Mistral

  • News4 today · latest 14h
  • AI analysts1% · 2 pts below
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.