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Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 levels openCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Kylian Mbappé 87%Lionel Messi 12%Rodri 9%Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 6%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

18 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Harry Kane97%+0.2 pts88%—

Lamine Yamal97%+3.0 pts94%none

Kylian Mbappé87%+1.0 pts80%none

Lionel Messi12%—12%none

Rodri9%−0.5 pts9%none

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia6%+0.4 pts4%none

Ousmane Dembélé4%−0.7 pts26%—

Michael Olise3%+0.2 pts22%—

Jude Bellingham3%+0.5 pts17%—

Fabian Ruiz2%−1.6 pts2%—

Erling Haaland2%−0.7 pts7%—

Luis Diaz2%+1.6 pts2%—

Pau Cubarsi1%+0.6 pts1%—

Vinícius Júnior1%+0.7 pts4%—

Declan Rice<1%—6%—

Achraf Hakimi<1%+0.3 pts1%—

Bruno Fernandes<1%—1%—

Vitinha<1%−1.0 pts5%—

18 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Harry Kane97%88%−9

Lamine Yamal97%94%−3

Kylian Mbappé87%80%−7

Lionel Messi12%12%0

Rodri9%9%0

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia6%4%−2

+12 more options

AI analysts' average · Declan Rice

6%

5 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Ousmane Dembélé: AI 26% vs market 4%, 22 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

2h
2026 Ballon d'Or: He's the clear winner - Declan Rice picks player to take award
Daily Post Nigeria
2h
Declan Rice tips England team-mate Harry Kane as 'clear winner' for Ballon d'Or after hard-fought Champions League draw in Munich
Goal.com
8h
Arsenal's Declan Rice back Harry Kane for Ballon d'Or after Bayern Munich draw
TribalFootball
8h
Clear winner : Arsenal star Declan Rice makes Harry Kane Ballon dOr claim
aol.co.uk
8h
Declan Rice backs Harry Kane for Ballon d’Or
Operativ Məlumat Mərkəzi
9h
'He's ridiculous' - Rice says Kane is 'clear winner' for Ballon d'Or
TNT Sports
9h
Arsenal survive brilliant Ballon d'Or winner Kane - but did Rice 'cheating' salvage Bayern draw?
Football365
9h
Declan Rice names Harry Kane as 'clear winner' of Ballon d'Or as Arsenal star hails battle in Champions League.
101 Great Goals
9h
Declan Rice names his Ballon d'Or winner after starring in Arsenal's draw with Bayern Munich
The Independent
9h
Declan Rice spoils Harry Kane party as Arsenal bounce back from Bukayo Saka blow
aol.co.uk
10h
Declan Rice declares Harry Kane as the clear winner for Ballon dOr
aol.co.uk

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

5 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Declan Rice officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Declan Rice officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Declan Rice · Buy YesOption 15 of 18

Polymarket price · live

Yes2¢

No100¢

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Before you decide · Declan Rice

News11 today · latest 2h
AI analysts6% · 5 pts above
Tiers 1–2none of the top 50

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