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Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 levels openCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Kylian Mbappé 87%Lionel Messi 12%Rodri 9%Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 6%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

18 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Harry Kane97%+0.2 pts88%—
Lamine Yamal97%+3.0 pts94%none
Kylian Mbappé87%+1.0 pts80%none
Lionel Messi12%—12%none
Rodri9%−0.5 pts9%none
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia6%+0.4 pts4%none
Ousmane Dembélé4%−0.7 pts26%—
Michael Olise3%+0.2 pts22%—
Jude Bellingham3%+0.5 pts17%—
Fabian Ruiz2%−1.6 pts2%—
Erling Haaland2%−0.7 pts7%—
Luis Diaz2%+1.5 pts2%—
Pau Cubarsi1%+0.6 pts1%—
Vinícius Júnior1%+0.7 pts4%—
Declan Rice<1%—6%—
Achraf Hakimi<1%+0.3 pts1%—
Bruno Fernandes<1%—1%—
Vitinha<1%−1.0 pts5%—

18 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Harry Kane97%88%−9
Lamine Yamal97%94%−3
Kylian Mbappé87%80%−7
Lionel Messi12%12%0
Rodri9%9%0
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia6%4%−2
+12 more options

AI analysts' average · Harry Kane

88%

9 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Ousmane Dembélé: AI 26% vs market 4%, 22 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 1h
    'Would be incredibly deserved' - Kompany backs Kane for Ballon d'Or after Arsenal draw
    Vodacom Soccer
  • 1h
    Harry Kane keen to learn Ballon d'Or verdict before London ceremony
    OneFootball
  • 1h
    Harry Kane admits he would 'love to know' Ballon d'Or decision in advance as Bayern striker tries not to stress ahead of Monday ceremony
    Goal.com
  • 2h
    Declan Rice tips England team-mate Harry Kane as 'clear winner' for Ballon d'Or after hard-fought Champions League draw in Munich
    Goal.com
  • 6h
    'Hard not to think about it': Kane wishes he knew of Ballon d'Or winner in advance
    Flashscore.com
  • 8h
    In-the-dark Kane trying not to 'stress' over Monday's Ballon d'Or reveal
    ESPN
  • 8h
    Champions League : Harry Kane's low-key character could harm his Ballon d'Or chances
    BBC
  • 8h
    Arsenal's Declan Rice back Harry Kane for Ballon d'Or after Bayern Munich draw
    TribalFootball
  • 8h
    Bayern Munich: 'Ridiculous' Harry Kane underlines Ballon d'Or credentials
    BBC
  • 8h
    'Clear winner': Arsenal star Declan Rice makes Harry Kane Ballon d'Or claim
    London Evening Standard
  • 8h
    Harry Kane leads Champions League Golden Boot race ahead of Ballon d’Or ceremony
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 8h
    Ballon d'Or: Harry Kane says 'it would be incredible' to win award
    Sky Sports
  • 8h
    Declan Rice backs Harry Kane for Ballon d’Or
    Operativ Məlumat Mərkəzi
  • 9h
    Is it 'phenomenal' Kane's year to lift the Ballon d'Or?
    BBC
  • 9h
    Laurens argues Kvaratskhelia should win Ballon d'Or ahead of Kane
    TNT Sports
  • 9h
    'He's ridiculous' - Rice says Kane is 'clear winner' for Ballon d'Or
    TNT Sports
  • 9h
    'It'll be a massive honour' - Kane hopeful of lifting Ballon d'Or
    TNT Sports
  • 9h
    Arsenal survive brilliant Ballon d'Or winner Kane - but did Rice 'cheating' salvage Bayern draw?
    Football365
  • 9h
    Even in a draw vs. Arsenal, Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane shows why he’s the best
    Yahoo Sports
  • 9h
    Incredible Harry Kane underlines Ballon d'Or case by taking the mickey out of Arsenal defence
    talkSPORT
  • 9h
    Harry Kane proves there can only be one Ballon d’Or winner
    The Telegraph
  • 10h
    Kompany and Kane react to Ballon d’Or favourite tag after Arsenal draw
    Bulinews
  • 10h
    Declan Rice declares Harry Kane as the ‘clear winner’ for Ballon d’Or
    The Independent
  • 11h
    A gateway to the Ballon d'Or? Kane extends incredible streak
    Yahoo Sports
  • 11h
    Do you know why Harry Kane is poised to make history at the Ballon d’Or?
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 12h
    Kylian Mbappé? Harry Kane? Lamine Yamal? Soccer's Top-20 Players Right Now
    FOX Sports
  • 13h
    No Bayern player has won the Ballon d’Or for 45 years. Would a Harry Kane win mean much to them?
    The New York Times
  • 13h
    Ballon d’Or 2026 contenders ranked: Can Kane or Olise fend off Yamal surge? - The Athletic
    The New York Times
  • 14h
    Is the Ballon d'Or already decided? Here's the story behind this photo of Kane
    blue News
  • 16h
    Havertz names Ballon d'Or contender Kane as his inspiration
    TNT Sports
  • 16h
    The photo of Harry Kane that raises suspicions: Has he won the Ballon d'Or?
    MARCA
  • 17h
    Has Harry Kane Already Won the Ballon d’Or? The Mysterious Bayern Munich Photo That Confused Everyone
    beIN SPORTS
  • 18h
    Harry Kane tuxedo post sparks Ballon d'Or chatter as Bayern clarify Arsenal teaser
    OneFootball
  • 19h
    Photo of Harry Kane causes a stir! Has Bayern Munich’s star striker won the Ballon d’Or?
    LiveScore
  • 20h
    Inside Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or charge as Cristiano Ronaldo record eyed vs Arsenal
    The Mirror
  • 21h
    Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe - Who will win the Ballon d’Or?
    TNT Sports
  • 21h
    Kane aiming for Ballon d'Or point as he looks to slay Arsenal again
    DAZN
  • 22h
    Ballon d’Or 2026 Winner Odds: Betting Sites Cut Harry Kane To 2/5 Ahead Of Monday's Ceremony
    OLBG
  • 22h
    Copa Independent | Kane v Yamal – and is the Ballon d’Or just a PR contest?
    AOL.com
  • 23h
    Harry Kane overlooked in Ballon d’Or past, will that change now?
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 1d
    Harry Kane isn't the world's best footballer - but Bayern Munich and England star is most deserving of the Ballon d'Or in 2026
    Goal.com
  • 1d
    Harry Kane Ballon d’Or debate: why he should win over Lamine Yamal
    Irish Independent
  • 1d
    'He deserves that trophy' - Serge Gnabry backs Bayern Munich team-mate Harry Kane to win Ballon d'Or ahead of Arsenal Champions League clash
    Yahoo Sports
  • 1d
    Ballon d'Or predictions, rankings for men's player of the year: Kane the favorite? Who are the contenders?
    NBC Sports
  • 1d
    AI Tips Lamine Yamal for 2026 Ballon d’Or Ahead of Mbappé and Kane
    Morocco World News
  • 1d
    Harry Kane backed to end England’s long Ballon d’Or wait by Bayern teammate
    The Independent
  • 1d
    Serge Gnabry vote Harry Kane pour le Ballon d’Or
    OneFootball
  • 1d
    Harry Kane has ‘done enough’ to win Ballon d’Or – Bayern team-mate Serge Gnabry
    The Irish News
  • 1d
    Harry Kane To Win The Ballon dOr Odds Now 3/10
    Oddschecker
  • 2d
    Bayern Munich’s Jonas Urbig believes teammate Harry Kane should win the Ballon d’Or
    Yahoo Sports
  • 2d
    2026 Ballon d’Or Betting Tips: Prolific Kane has the edge via his World Cup displays
    DAZN
  • 2d
    Ballon d’Or 2026 Odds: Kalshi Prices With Kane Clear Favourite
    centraljersey.com
  • 2d
    The 2026 Ballon d'Or: The case for Kane
    DAZN
  • 2d
    Another pundit says Harry Kane deserves Ballon d’Or
    Bavarian Football Works
  • 2d
    When is the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony? Harry Kane in the running for prestigious award
    talkSPORT
  • 2d
    Yamal, Kane, Mbappe, Olise & Raphinha: 2027 Ballon d'Or race stats compared
    Planet Football
  • 3d
    Harry Kane Leads Ballon d’Or Odds as Last Year’s Winner Trails
    Heavy.com
  • 3d
    Harry Kane : “Gagner la Ballon d’Or serait un énorme accomplissement”
    OneFootball
  • 4d
    Kane backed for Ballon d'Or over Olise by Bayern president
    beIN SPORTS
  • 5d
    Bayern Munich wants Harry Kane extension finalized before Ballon d’Or ceremony
    Yahoo Sports
  • 5d
    Bayern Munich prez says Harry Kane should win Ballon d’Or
    Yahoo Sports
  • 6d
    Ballon d’Or? NFL? One pundit thinks Harry Kane can do it all
    Yahoo Sports
  • 6d
    Harry Kane Close to Extending Bayern Munich Contract Until 2029
    beIN SPORTS
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

5 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Harry Kane officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Harry Kane officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Harry Kane · Buy YesOption 1 of 18

Polymarket price · live

Yes97¢
No3¢
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Before you decide · Harry Kane

  • News40 today · latest 1h
  • AI analysts88% · 9 pts below
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.