MarketsSports
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN30 options
Harry Kane 76%Lamine Yamal 15%Kylian Mbappé 8%Lionel Messi 2%
30 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
30 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Harry Kane76%69%−7
Lamine Yamal15%22%+7
Kylian Mbappé8%5%−3
Lionel Messi2%2%0
Rodri<1%1%+1
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia<1%2%+2
+24 more options
AI analysts' average · Ferran Torres
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Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Kylian MbappéYes surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 04 · 0
Harry KaneYes surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 03 · 0
Lamine YamalYes surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 03 · 0
Lionel MessiYes surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 03 · 0
Ousmane DembéléYes omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No ndb1ndb1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2hedgevaultmainnet1hedgevaultmainnet1: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 ndb1ndb1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
Michael OliseYes omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2hedgevaultmainnet1hedgevaultmainnet1: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 03 · 0
RodriYes surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1spendingmoneyspendingmoney: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Khvicha KvaratskheliaYes surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Erling HaalandYes surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 surfandturfsurfandturf: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1omnibus-424779omnibus-424779: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Fabian RuizYes 0x0f34…76840x0f34…7684: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 0x0f34…76840x0f34…7684: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
VitinhaYes 0x0f34…76840x0f34…7684: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 0x0f34…76840x0f34…7684: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
19 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
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