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MarketsMovies & TV

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN16 levels openCloses Mar 15, 2027Research 3h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Tao Okamoto 62%Amanda Seyfried 59%Sandra Hüller 33%Mariana di Girolamo 31%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

16 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Anne Hathaway88%−0.5 pts79%none
Samantha Morton82%+12.5 pts65%0 · 1
Penélope Cruz74%+1.5 pts75%1 · 0
Tao Okamoto62%+1.0 pts35%none
Amanda Seyfried59%−1.0 pts38%1 · 0
Sandra Hüller33%+13.0 pts24%1 · 0
Mariana di Girolamo31%−2.0 pts60%none
Olivia Colman31%+3.5 pts21%none
Parker Posey21%−2.0 pts19%1 · 1
Merritt Wever13%—11%none
Zendaya9%+1.0 pts7%none
Gemma Chan9%−1.5 pts9%none
Isabella Rossellini6%−0.7 pts6%0 · 1
Margaret Qualley4%−0.7 pts11%0 · 1
Betty Gilpin3%−1.9 pts3%none
Inde Navarrette1%—1%none

16 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 3h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anne Hathaway88%79%−9
Samantha Morton82%65%−17
Penélope Cruz74%75%+1
Tao Okamoto62%35%−27
Amanda Seyfried59%38%−21
Sandra Hüller33%24%−9
+10 more options

AI analysts' average · Inde Navarrette

1%

level with the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

Mariana di Girolamo: AI 60% vs market 31%, 29 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 1d
    #OscarsSoWhite … again? The post-‘Sinners’ Oscar season falls short on diversity
    Gold Derby
  • 2d
    Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the Race
    The Hollywood Reporter
  • 3d
    A Post-Film Festival Analysis of the 2027 Oscar Contenders
    Matthew Huff | Substack
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 3h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Parker Posey21 · 1
Samantha Morton10 · 1
Penélope Cruz11 · 0
Amanda Seyfried11 · 0
Sandra Hüller11 · 0
Isabella Rossellini10 · 1
Margaret Qualley10 · 1

9 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 16 options

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Inde Navarrette · Buy YesOption 16 of 16

Polymarket price · live

Yes1¢
No99¢
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Before you decide · Inde Navarrette

  • News0 today · latest 1d
  • AI analysts1% · level
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.