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MarketsAI

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN15 optionsCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 15 options

Google 41%Anthropic 34%Meta 13%MiniMax 5%

15 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Google41%+11.0 pts—none
Anthropic34%+12.0 pts25%none
Meta13%−1.0 pts—none
MiniMax5%−1.6 pts—none
DeepSeek5%−0.7 pts—none
StepFun5%——none
Thinky4%−0.2 pts—none
Z.ai4%−0.1 pts—none
Amazon3%——none
Nvidia<1%+0.1 pts—none
Baidu<1%——none
Meituan<1%——none
SpaceXAI———none
ByteDance———none
Tencent———none

15 options trading, by chance. +6 more on Polymarket

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google41%——
Anthropic34%25%−9
Meta13%——
MiniMax5%——
DeepSeek5%——
StepFun5%——
+9 more options

AI analysts' average · MiniMax

—

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 25% vs market 34%, 9 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

2News

  • 9h
    MiniMax Shares Fall Below IPO Price Amid AI Sector Sell-Off
    Caixin Global
  • 22h
    MiniMax Erases Post-IPO Gain as AI Model Rivalry Intensifies
    Bloomberg.com
  • 22h
    MiniMax Named Inferact an API Launch Partner for M3.1 Flash. The Model Did Not Change — the Serving Layer Did.
    OrcaRouter
  • 1d
    MiniMax's Morgan Suo: A Faster Model Only Pays Off If the Whole Job Gets Faster
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    MiniMax Cuts API Prices With New Flash AI Model
    Caixin Global
  • 2d
    MiniMax, DeepSeek Unveil Faster, Cheaper AI Models
    조선일보
  • 2d
    China’s MiniMax Says Its New AI Model Cuts Agent Costs by 70%
    TechRepublic
  • 2d
    Is China's Domestic AI Cost-Performance King About to Be Replaced? MiniMax Emerges as a Real Game-Changer
    36Kr
  • 2d
    MiniMax Launches M3.1 Flash, Claims 70% Lower Costs for AI Agent Tasks
    Technology Org
  • 2d
    Hong Kong Stocks Fall as Oil Prices Climb; MiniMax Slips on New AI Model Launch
    marketscreener.com
  • 2d
    MiniMax Releases M3.1 Flash AI Model With Substantial Cost Cuts and Better Performance
    WinBuzzer
  • 2d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash Arrives With a Faster, Cheaper Vision for AI Agents
    Kingy AI
  • 2d
    MiniMax announces new AI model 'MiniMax M3.1 Flash,' enhancing AI agent performance while reducing usage costs by 70%.
    GIGAZINE
  • 2d
    Within less than 72 hours, both DeepSeek and MiniMax submitted their entries, as Flash models collectively challenge flagship offerings.
    富途牛牛
  • 2d
    MiniMax Releases M3.1 Flash Model, Nearly Tripling Inference Speed and Cutting Costs by 70%
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    MiniMax Advances AI with M3.1 Flash Model, Boosting Speed and Re
    GuruFocus
  • 2d
    MiniMax Launches New AI Model With 70% Lower Usage Costs
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 2d
    Viral Mysterious Space Rabbit Unveiled: Originated From MiniMax's New Model
    36Kr
  • 2d
    DeepSeek & MiniMax Unveil New AI Models in 72 Hours: Flash Series Challenges Flagship-Tier Generative AI
    eu.36kr.com
  • 2d
    An Explosive Conspiracy Theory Suggests China’s MiniMax “Sniped” Artificial Analysis’ Evaluation Queries To Make Its Otherwise Shitty M3.1 Flash Model Look Good
    Wccftech
  • 3d
    MiniMax Slashes New Model Prices by 70% as Agent Race Enters Payoff Phase
    BigGo Finance
  • 3d
    MiniMax launches M3.1 Flash model, says it cuts AI agent costs by 70%
    SiliconANGLE
  • 3d
    MiniMax just halved its token prices. Your AI agent bill may not follow.
    The New Stack
  • 3d
    MiniMax's new M3.1 Flash beats DeepSeek and Opus 5 on a key business benchmark at lower cost — but with a high hallucination rate
    VentureBeat
  • 3d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash shows China's AI price race has no floor in sight
    The Decoder
  • 3d
    MiniMax M3.1 Flash Launches, Cuts AI Costs 70% [2026]
    shattered.io
  • 3d
    China’s MiniMax And DeepSeek Have A Compute Capacity Of Sub-100K H100-Equivalent GPUs, And Yet Their Latest Models Continue To Scale The Frontier Curve, With Distillation Failing To Explain This Disparity
    Wccftech
  • 3d
    MiniMax Launches M3.1 Flash, Revealing Space Bunny Stealth Model
    Unite.AI
  • 3d
    MiniMax Just Launched M3.1 Flash: 428B MoE Agentic Model at $0.15/M Input
    MarkTechPost
  • 3d
    MiniMax H3 benchmarks: 40 DiT variants on one RTX 5080, failures included
    phasyn.dev
  • 3d
    China's MiniMax launches updated AI model M3.1 Flash, claims major improvements
    Reuters
  • 3d
    MiniMax launches the M3.1 Flash model with 3x faster speed and 70% lower cost.
    KuCoin
  • 3d
    MiniMax quietly launches M3.1-Flash after weeks as a mystery Space Bunny model
    Startup Fortune
  • 5d
    What 500 MiniMax Code Tests Revealed About AI Saying "Done"
    defuzex.ai
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

15 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 15 options

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
How markets resolve
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MiniMax · Buy YesOption 4 of 15

Polymarket price · live

Yes16¢
No99¢
Trade on Polymarket

Opens Polymarket in a new tab. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Kellian never holds your money.

Before you decide · MiniMax

  • News3 today · latest 9h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.