MarketsGeopolitics
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN25 levels openResearch 2d ago
Rafael Grossi 38%Steve Witkoff 38%Abbas Araghchi 37%Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 35%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
25 levels openby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsBuy
25 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Rafael Grossi38%15%−23
Steve Witkoff38%33%−5
Abbas Araghchi37%36%−1
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani35%26%−9
Jared Kushner33%32%−1
Mohsen Rezaei33%12%−21
+19 more options
AI analysts' average · Mohsen Rezaei
12%
21 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 787 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Your forecast on Mohsen Rezaei
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Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Majid Takht-RavanchiYes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 2, #46 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Kazem GharibabadiYes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 101456101456: Tier 2, #39 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 101456101456: Tier 2, #39 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
Masoud PezeshkianYes 101456101456: Tier 2, #39 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 101456101456: Tier 2, #39 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
J.D. VanceYes Contestable-ParfaitContestable-Parfait: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 Contestable-ParfaitContestable-Parfait: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Mohammed bin SalmanYes 101456101456: Tier 2, #39 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 101456101456: Tier 2, #39 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
20 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Mohsen Rezaei resolves Yes if the listed person physically attends and actively participates in a formal senior-level in-person US-Iran peace-talks round, direct or mediated, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No. Technical, staff-level or follow-on talks from the June 22 Switzerland round do not count unless they are part of a new formally convened senior-level round. Remote contacts and calls do not count.
- Watch out
- Technical, staff-level, working-group or follow-on talks from the June 22 Switzerland round do not qualify on their own; only a new formally convened senior-level US-Iran round in person (direct or mediated) before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET counts.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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