MarketsGeopolitics
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN30 optionsResearch 14d ago
Mojtaba Khamenei 94%No Head of State 2%Alireza Arafi 2%Reza Pahlavi 1%
30 optionsby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hBuy
30 options trading, by chance.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Mojtaba KhameneiYes KevindotoKevindoto: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 5 KevindotoKevindoto: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1realbengvirrealbengvir: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 05 · 0
No Head of StateYes meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Alireza ArafiYes meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Reza PahlaviNo melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Masoud PezeshkianYes meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Ahmad VahidiYes meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafYes meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
23 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Muhammad Mirbaqiri resolves Yes if, at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026, Muhammad Mirbaqiri is the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of head of state of Iran. That means primary governing authority, including effective control of the armed forces, national institutions and core executive decisions, regardless of formal title. If no one exercises effective governing control, 'No Head of State' resolves Yes. The source is a consensus of credible reporting.
- Watch out
- The market resolves on who de facto exercises primary governing control at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026, regardless of formal title. A nominal Supreme Leader without effective authority does not qualify, and 'No Head of State' applies if no one has effective control.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
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