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MarketsTech

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN8 optionsCloses Nov 2, 2026

Polymarket price · top 4 of 8 options

Apple 72%NVIDIA 21%Alphabet <1%Microsoft <1%

8 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Apple72%−17.0 pts72%3 · 0
NVIDIA21%+10.0 pts13%1 · 1
Alphabet<1%+0.1 pts2%none
Microsoft<1%—1%none
Saudi Aramco<1%—1%none
Amazon———none
Broadcom———none
SpaceX———none

8 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Apple72%72%0
NVIDIA21%13%−8
Alphabet<1%2%+1
Microsoft<1%1%+1
Saudi Aramco<1%1%+1
Amazon———
+2 more options

AI analysts' average · SpaceX

—

Biggest gap

NVIDIA: AI 13% vs market 21%, 8 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 4h
    Elon Musk Predicts SpaceX Could Reach $1 Trillion in Annual Revenue Run Rate by Year-End 2027. Here's What Needs to Happen.
    The Motley Fool
  • 4h
    SpaceX Just Became an AI Company. The Numbers Prove It.
    Yahoo Finance
  • 5h
    Tesla, SpaceX, Meta, IBM, Lam Research, Spotify, and More Stocks That Explain Today’s Market
    Barron's
  • 5h
    Was Tesla’s Flying Roadster Reveal Just a Big SpaceX Marketing Stunt?
    Autoblog
  • 5h
    3 reasons SpaceX could fall short of $1 trillion revenue goal
    Yahoo Finance
  • 5h
    SpaceX Just Crushed Wall Street's Q3 Targets -- but a Potential Tesla Merger Is Even Bigger News
    The Motley Fool
  • 5h
    Elon Musk: SpaceX Revenue Could Hit "Somewhere Between $500 Billion and a Trillion" by 2027
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 5h
    What Is the Biggest Obstacle to a SpaceX-Tesla Merger? JPMorgan Points to China
    Yahoo Finance
  • 6h
    SpaceX Rallied, but These 6 Space Stocks Are Still Waiting for Liftoff
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 6h
    SpaceX and Tesla Are Already Joined at the Hip. What a Formal Merger Would Mean.
    WSJ
  • 7h
    John Malone Predicts a Major Deal Between Skydance and Elon Musk’s SpaceX
    The Hollywood Reporter
  • 7h
    Musk's political baggage clouds prospects for SpaceX-Tesla deal
    Reuters
  • 7h
    Elon Musk's public push for SpaceX-Tesla merger is complicating talks
    Quartz
  • 7h
    Tesla and SpaceX Are Trading Like a Merger Is Coming
    Inc.com
  • 8h
    Prediction: This Is How Much SpaceX Stock Will Be Worth By the End of 2027
    The Motley Fool
  • 8h
    Tesla Q3 2026 earnings beat estimates as SpaceX merger is studied
    Quartz
  • 8h
    SpaceX-Tesla Merger? How Musk Could Navigate the China Challenge
    Modern Diplomacy
  • 8h
    Musk’s backing for a SpaceX-Tesla merger rattled insiders, Reuters reports
    The Next Web
  • 8h
    AI just saved SpaceX: record $14.6B quarter, possible merger
    Yahoo Finance
  • 8h
    Tesla and SpaceX stocks are moving more in step than at any time since SpaceX's IPO
    Opening Bell Daily
  • 8h
    The biggest hurdle to a SpaceX merger with Tesla isn’t Elon Musk. It’s Tesla’s shareholders
    Fortune
  • 9h
    A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Would Make a Daunting Foe — For Now
    Bloomberg.com
  • 9h
    Elon Musk’s SpaceX-Tesla merger math doesn’t add up
    Fortune
  • 9h
    Democratic Surrogates Campaign, US & Israel Plan Iran Strikes, Tesla SpaceX Merger
    NPR
  • 9h
    SpaceX Is Set to Make Dubious History Yet Again, With Retail Investors Paying the Price
    The Motley Fool
  • 9h
    Behind Elon Musk’s plans for a mega-merger of SpaceX and Tesla
    Los Angeles Times
  • 9h
    Musk’s Tesla-SpaceX Merger Would Formalize a Decadeslong Partnership
    WSJ
  • 9h
    Tesla and SpaceX merger talks are real. Here are the pros and cons investors need to weigh.
    Business Insider
  • 9h
    Elon Musk wants kids to own a piece of SpaceX. See other times governments and the wealthy gifted stock.
    Business Insider
  • 9h
    A SpaceX-Tesla merger: The ins, outs, and what-have-yous
    Fortune
  • 10h
    SpaceX-Tesla Merger Could Create a Frankenstein's Monster Wall Street Can't Value
    Business Insider
  • 10h
    Elon Musk’s flying Roadster was an ad for a SpaceX and Tesla merger after all
    Fast Company
  • 12h
    Elon Musk’s dream merger is a nightmare for SpaceX shareholders
    Fortune
  • 13h
    Analyst sees boost to SpaceX shares in long run if Tesla merger happens
    CNBC
  • 15h
    Musk's public endorsement of SpaceX-Tesla deal may throw a wrench in talks
    www.reuters.com
  • 15h
    SpaceX confirms Starship 15 launch window with massive ambitions
    Teslarati
  • 19h
    Tesla revenue flattens out as Elon Musk eyes possible SpaceX deal
    Axios
  • 20h
    SpaceX shares soar on possible tie-up with Tesla
    Yahoo Finance
  • 20h
    Nasdaq leads Wall Street gains as SpaceX, Super Micro boost AI sentiment
    Reuters
  • 23h
    SpaceX Soars 10% After Earnings—and Could Climb to $500 Next
    Barron's
  • 23h
    Tesla cuts spending before potential SpaceX deal even as Musk bets future on AI, robots
    Reuters
  • 23h
    Tesla beats earnings projections after Musk floats SpaceX merger plan
    The Guardian
  • 1d
    What to Know About the SpaceX-Tesla Merger Talks
    WSJ
  • 1d
    John Malone Floats Potential Deal Between Skydance and SpaceX
    Bloomberg.com
  • 1d
    Musk's SpaceX stock gift is 'tip of the iceberg' for Trump Accounts, Altimeter's Gerstner says
    CNBC
  • 1d
    Musk pledges $10bn in SpaceX shares for US children: Who really gains?
    Al Jazeera
  • 1d
    Musk's proposed SpaceX stock giveaway would go into 'Trump Accounts'
    www.theverge.com
  • 1d
    When will SpaceX and Blue Origin fly to the moon? NASA reveals lunar lander timelines (and an Artemis III update)
    Space
  • 1d
    Musk backs SpaceX-Tesla merger idea as both boards form special committees
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Elon Musk Says SpaceX and Tesla Are Exploring a Merger
    The New York Times
  • 1d
    Wall St sees Tesla-SpaceX merger as inevitable, but split on price
    Reuters
  • 1d
    SpaceX earnings left one big question unanswered
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Why is Elon Musk plotting a mega-merger of SpaceX and Tesla?
    www.bbc.com
  • 1d
    SpaceX stock jumps 10% after earnings beat and Musk hints at Tesla tie-up
    CNBC
  • 1d
    SpaceX revenue soars 161% as AI business grows
    abcnews.com
  • 1d
    Musk says SpaceX-Tesla merger is 'a good idea' as companies form deal committees
    Reuters
  • 1d
    Musk calls Tesla-SpaceX merger a 'good idea'
    www.reuters.com
  • 1d
    SpaceX and Tesla's Terafab targets 2028 for volume chip production, Musk says
    Reuters
  • 1d
    SpaceX and Tesla boards form special committees to review merger
    TechCrunch
  • 1d
    SpaceX and Tesla have formed committees to discuss potential merger, Musk
    www.cnn.com
  • 1d
    SpaceX will attempt 1st-ever double Starship rocket catch on next test launch, Elon Musk says
    Space
  • 1d
    Tesla and SpaceX have set up committees to explore a merger
    www.businessinsider.com
  • 1d
    SpaceX stock surges after Musk says a merger with Tesla would be ‘a good idea’ | CNN Business
    CNN
  • 1d
    Tesla and SpaceX explore merger as Elon Musk gives backing
    The Guardian
  • 1d
    SpaceX’s AI business is beating expectations
    TechCrunch
  • 1d
    SpaceX's data centre deals boost revenue by 161%
    www.ft.com
  • 1d
    SpaceX says big AI growth fueled revenue jump
    The Verge
  • 2d
    If Elon Musk gifts SpaceX stock through Trump Accounts, it will come with a catch
    CNBC
  • 3d
    Elon Musk says he's giving SpaceX stock to every kid in America
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3d
    SpaceX, Tesla earnings to test Musk's AI spending ambitions as merger talk grows
    Reuters
  • 3d
    Elon Musk says he is going to give SpaceX stock away to kids
    Yahoo Finance
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Apple33 · 0
NVIDIA21 · 1

6 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 8 options

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Related Markets

Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

SpaceX · Buy YesOption 8 of 8

Polymarket price · live

Yes0¢
No—
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Before you decide · SpaceX

  • News42 today · latest 4h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.