MarketsPolitics
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN16 levels open
Susie Wiles 36%Pete Hegseth 34%Kristi Noem 30%Kash Patel 20%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
16 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
16 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Susie Wiles36%——
Pete Hegseth34%25%−9
Kristi Noem30%——
Kash Patel20%——
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.18%——
Markwayne Mullin15%——
+10 more options
AI analysts' average · Tom Homan
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Your forecast on Tom Homan
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
13 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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