MarketsPolitics
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN23 levels open
Stefan Brodie 17%Donald Brodie 17%Ryan Salame 13%Keonne Rodriguez 10%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
23 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
23 options trading, by chance. +5 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Stefan Brodie17%——
Donald Brodie17%——
Ryan Salame13%——
Keonne Rodriguez10%9%−1
Steve Bannon8%——
Matt Gaetz7%——
+17 more options
AI analysts' average · Elon Musk
1%
2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 165 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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