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Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Resolved0 levels open18 closedResearch 2d ago

ResolvedYesJan 1, 2027, 12:59 UTC

The verdict

Yes won

Settled Jan 1, 2027

Creator-reported score

This captured game score is the creator’s evidence. The market verdict is shown separately.

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Polymarket chance · the 0 levels nearest 50%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

0 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
18 closed levels
Harry Kane>99%+0.4 pts96%—
Lamine Yamal>99%+0.1 pts94%—
Kylian Mbappé>99%+2.1 pts81%—
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia2%+0.9 pts4%—
Rodri<1%—9%—
Lionel Messi<1%—10%—
Fabian Ruiz<1%−0.5 pts1%—
Ousmane Dembélé<1%—3%—
Pau Cubarsi<1%−0.9 pts1%—
Erling Haaland<1%−1.3 pts3%—
Jude Bellingham<1%−1.5 pts3%—
Michael Olise<1%—2%—
Vinícius Júnior<1%−0.4 pts1%—
Declan Rice<1%−0.7 pts1%—
Vitinha<1%−0.5 pts1%—
Achraf Hakimi<1%−1.1 pts1%—
Bruno Fernandes<1%—1%—
Luis Diaz<1%—1%—

0 options trading, by chance. +19 more on Polymarket

The calls

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2d ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

AI analysts' average · Harry Kane

96%

4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

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In plain English
Harry Kane resolves Yes if the official men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking places Harry Kane in positions 1 to 3. It resolves No otherwise, including if the award is canceled or no final ranking is published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The official Ballon d'Or announcement (ballondor.com) is the primary source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Harry Kane officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How markets resolve
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