MarketsAI
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN7 optionsResearch 4d ago
12-15 78%16-19 11%<12 4%20-23 2%
7 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
7 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<124%7%+3
12-1578%75%−3
16-1911%14%+3
20-232%3%+1
24-27<1%1%+1
28-31———
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · 12-15
75%
3 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
12-15Yes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
16-19Yes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
<12No dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
28-31Yes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the number of distinct cities or regions where Waymo's ride-hailing service is publicly bookable, through the Waymo app or Uber, is within 12-15 on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Limited pilots, employee-only and invite-only service don't count. A broader region that Waymo describes as one service area counts as one city.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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