MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN16 levels openResearch 3d ago
Tao Okamoto 64%Amanda Seyfried 51%Olivia Colman 35%Mariana di Girolamo 29%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
16 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
16 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anne Hathaway89%87%−2
Penélope Cruz77%74%−3
Samantha Morton74%67%−7
Tao Okamoto64%48%−16
Amanda Seyfried51%42%−9
Olivia Colman35%19%−16
+10 more options
AI analysts' average · Anne Hathaway
87%
2 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Samantha MortonYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
Amanda SeyfriedYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
Parker PoseyYes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
Penélope CruzYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Tao OkamotoYes sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Olivia ColmanNo sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Mariana di GirolamoYes sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Sandra HüllerYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Gemma ChanNo sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
ZendayaNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Isabella RosselliniNo title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Margaret QualleyNo title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
4 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Anne Hathaway resolves Yes if she is officially nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards when nominations are announced (scheduled January 21, 2027). It resolves No if she is not nominated, or if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The Academy (AMPAS, oscars.org) is the primary source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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