MarketsWorld
Who will Trump speak to by October 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN14 levels open1 closedResearch 1d ago
Lula da Silva 31%Mark Rutte 29%Ahmed al-Sharaa 16%Volodymyr Zelenskyy 12%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
14 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed level
14 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Andy Burnham>99%97%−2
Lula da Silva31%55%+24
Mark Rutte29%24%−5
Ahmed al-Sharaa16%6%−10
Volodymyr Zelenskyy12%15%+3
Pope Leo XIV6%15%+9
+8 more options
AI analysts' average · Andy Burnham
97%
2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Andy BurnhamYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Lula da SilvaNo CattailCattail: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 CattailCattail: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Mark RutteYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Ahmed al-SharaaYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Volodymyr ZelenskyyNo CattailCattail: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 CattailCattail: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Xi JinpingNo CattailCattail: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 CattailCattail: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Masoud PezeshkianNo smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Mojtaba KhameneiNo smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Nicolás MaduroNo smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
5 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Andy Burnham resolves Yes if Donald Trump and Andy Burnham have any verbal interaction, in person, by phone or by video call, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. Credible media reporting is the resolution source. Statements by either party or their official representatives count only if they clearly indicate a qualifying verbal talk in the window and are not contradicted by the other side or credible media by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the statement. O…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
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