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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN28 levels openResearch 3h ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Ryan Salame 15%Matt Gaetz 15%Donald Brodie 11%Joe Exotic 8%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

28 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Ryan Salame15%——none
Matt Gaetz15%+1.5 pts—none
Donald Brodie11%−5.0 pts—none
Joe Exotic8%−0.5 pts—none
Stefan Brodie8%——none
Steve Bannon7%−0.7 pts—none
Daniel Penny7%+0.1 pts—none
Keonne Rodriguez7%−1.0 pts—none
Roger Ver5%——none
Diddy5%——none
Bob Menendez5%+0.2 pts—none
Elon Musk5%−0.3 pts—none
Young Thug5%——none
Roger Stone5%+0.1 pts—none
Derek Chauvin5%−0.2 pts—none
Ghislaine Maxwell5%−0.1 pts—none
Elizabeth Holmes5%−0.2 pts—none
Julian Assange4%———
Andrew Tate4%———
Edward Snowden4%——none
Sam Bankman-Fried4%−1.1 pts—none
Do Kwon4%——none
Nicolas Maduro3%——none
Eric Adams3%+0.4 pts——
Himself3%——none
Antoine Massey3%———
Martin Shkreli3%−0.6 pts——
Hunter Biden2%−0.1 pts—none

28 options trading, by chance.

AI analysts

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News

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Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

23 options: no ranked trader holds them

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 28 options

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In plain English
Andrew Tate's market resolves Yes if that individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves No. Official US government information is the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also used.
Watch out
Commutations and reprieves count alongside pardons; grants before November 17, 2025 do not count.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How markets resolve
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