MarketsGeopolitics
US imports Russian diesel by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 levels open1 closed
January 31 69%December 31 62%November 30 55%November 15 40%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
6 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed level
6 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
November 2<1%——
November 3055%36%−19
November 1540%——
December 3162%69%+7
January 3169%——
March 3170%——
AI analysts' average · November 2
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Your forecast on November 2
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
November 30Yes MrMelonHeadMrMelonHead: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 1nvoker11nvoker1: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 MrMelonHeadMrMelonHead: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 1nvoker11nvoker1: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2NewshoundNewshound: Tier 2, #35 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 4
November 2Yes a5533a5533: Tier 2, #41 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 1nvoker11nvoker1: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 a5533a5533: Tier 2, #41 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 1nvoker11nvoker1: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2timeistmoneytimeistmoney: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
December 31Yes 2B9S2B9S: Tier 2, #36 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 1nvoker11nvoker1: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 2B9S2B9S: Tier 2, #36 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2timeistmoneytimeistmoney: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 1nvoker11nvoker1: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
November 15Yes timeistmoneytimeistmoney: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 1nvoker11nvoker1: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 timeistmoneytimeistmoney: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 1nvoker11nvoker1: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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