Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN12 levels openResearch 3d ago
Anthropic 78%OpenAI 11%Meta 11%xAI 8%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
12 levels open · by chance
12 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · Anthropic
12 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
11 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Anthropic resolves Yes if that company holds the highest (or tied-highest) Rank in the lmarena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, style control off, at any time up to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Anthropic's rule says 'between market creation and' that deadline.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
