How do I trade on "Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN23 levels openCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 6d ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Donald Brodie 20%Elon Musk 14%Ryan Salame 14%Stefan Brodie 13%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

23 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Donald Brodie20%———

Elon Musk14%+5.0 pts1%—

Ryan Salame14%—12%—

Stefan Brodie13%−2.0 pts15%—

Joe Exotic10%−1.0 pts6%—

Steve Bannon9%+0.2 pts6%—

Daniel Penny8%+0.4 pts5%—

Keonne Rodriguez8%—7%—

Roger Ver5%—3%—

Matt Gaetz5%−2.0 pts6%—

Bob Menendez5%−0.2 pts3%—

Derek Chauvin5%−0.2 pts3%—

Diddy4%—4%—

Sam Bankman-Fried4%+0.5 pts3%—

Ghislaine Maxwell4%—5%—

Do Kwon4%+1.1 pts3%—

Elizabeth Holmes4%−0.6 pts4%—

Edward Snowden4%—3%—

Roger Stone4%−0.1 pts1%—

Nicolas Maduro4%—1%—

Young Thug3%−0.9 pts1%—

Hunter Biden2%———

Himself2%−0.2 pts2%—

23 options trading, by chance. +5 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 6d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Donald Brodie20%——

Elon Musk14%1%−13

Ryan Salame14%12%−2

Stefan Brodie13%15%+2

Joe Exotic10%6%−4

Steve Bannon9%6%−3

+17 more options

AI analysts' average · Donald Brodie

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Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 23 options

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In plain English: Resolves Yes if Donald Brodie receives a presidential pardon, commutation or reprieve from Donald Trump at any time between 2025-11-17 and 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. Official US government information decides, backed by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How markets resolve