MarketsElections
Trump out as President before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level openResearch 12d ago
Trump out as President before 2027? 2%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
1 level open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hBuy
1 option trading.
AI analysts
The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Trump out as President before 2027?No forinnerpsandr1x11222forinnerpsandr1x11222: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 forinnerpsandr1x11222forinnerpsandr1x11222: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2GohstGohst: Tier 2, #40 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Donald Trump permanently ceases to be President by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if his resignation/removal is announced before the market's end date, regardless of its effective date; otherwise No, according to a consensus of credible reporting. Impeachment without removal and temporary transfers do not count; a Twenty-Fifth Amendment Section 4 determination upheld by two-thirds of both Houses of Congress qualifies.
- Watch out
- An announcement of resignation/removal before the market's end date immediately resolves Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. Impeachment without removal does not count.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sign in to comment
