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MarketsAI

Which company has the best AI model end of November?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 optionsCloses Dec 2, 2026Research 10h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 18 options

Google 58%Anthropic 36%OpenAI 3%Meta 1%

18 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Google58%+5.0 pts52%8 · 1
Anthropic36%−3.0 pts39%2 · 2
OpenAI3%−0.8 pts11%1 · 0
Meta1%−1.1 pts8%2 · 0
Alibaba<1%+0.2 pts2%none
SpaceXAI<1%+0.1 pts2%none
Z.ai<1%—1%none
Moonshot<1%—1%none
Xiaomi<1%+0.1 pts1%none
DeepSeek<1%+0.1 pts2%none
Baidu———none
Amazon———none
ByteDance———none
Nvidia———none
Thinky———none
Mistral———none
Meituan———none
StepFun———none

18 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 10h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google58%52%−6
Anthropic36%39%+3
OpenAI3%11%+8
Meta1%8%+7
Alibaba<1%2%+1
SpaceXAI<1%2%+1
+12 more options

AI analysts' average · DeepSeek

2%

2 pts above the market · 5 AI analysts

Biggest gap

OpenAI: AI 11% vs market 3%, 8 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 11h
    DeepSeek raises $15 billion in funding as it steps up AI competition with OpenAI, Anthropic
    Storyboard18
  • 13h
    Tencent and CATL back DeepSeek's $15B funding round to challenge top US AI labs: report
    TradingView
  • 14h
    DeepSeek Nears $15 Billion Fundraise to Fuel AI Race
    StratNews Global
  • 16h
    DeepSeek wrapping up $15 billion fundraising to fuel AI race
    Reuters
  • 17h
    China’s DeepSeek Raises $15 Billion to Challenge Top US AI Labs
    Bloomberg.com
  • 19h
    DeepSeek Open-Source Inference Framework: Calculated 82% Gross Profit Margin for AI
    36Kr
  • 1d
    Just the Docs: DHS Discloses July Order Stripping DeepSeek AI from Federal Civilian IT Systems
    Just Security
  • 1d
    Deepseek AI Predicts That Chainlink (LINK) is About to do Something Huge
    TradingView
  • 1d
    US bans DeepSeek AI tools from federal civilian agencies
    Digital Watch Observatory
  • 1d
    U.S. Orders Federal Agencies to Remove DeepSeek AI Products Over National Security Concerns
    AI Insider
  • 1d
    China protests the US Deepseek ban while blocking ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini at home
    The Decoder
  • 1d
    5 things to know about Chinese AI startup DeepSeek
    vanguardngr.com
  • 1d
    DeepSeek Wants Better AI at Lower Cost · TechNode
    technode.com
  • 1d
    DeepSeek's Latest Update Scores Lower on Accounting Work as Open Models Trail on Consistency, DualEntry Benchmark Finds.
    Business Wire
  • 1d
    Get ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and DeepSeek in one window for $59.97 for life
    PCWorld
  • 1d
    DeepSeek seeks ‘total victory’ with new open-source tool to slash AI cost
    South China Morning Post
  • 1d
    DeepSeek Open-Sources Framework Behind Its High-Margin AI Inference
    The Information
  • 1d
    DeepSeek Unveils Open-Source Tool to Help Cut AI Operating Costs
    www.bloomberg.com
  • 1d
    US bans DeepSeek across federal agencies, putting AI supply chains under scrutiny
    CIO
  • 1d
    DeepSeek Open-Sources DeepInfer Inference Engine
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 1d
    US bans use of China DeepSeek AI in federal agencies , cites security concerns
    americanbazaaronline.com
  • 1d
    DeepSeek makes DeepInfer open source to cut AI costs
    TechTarget
  • 2d
    U.S. government bans Chinese AI app DeepSeek from federal IT systems
    upi
  • 2d
    DeepSeek Open Sources Inference Tech to Lower AI Costs
    PYMNTS.com
  • 2d
    China - Based DeepSeek AI Products Banned From Use By Government , Contractors
    ibtimes.com
  • 2d
    US government agencies ordered to stop using DeepSeek AI products
    SC Media
  • 2d
    DeepSeek Faster Flash Model , Anthropic Bug - Hunting Scanner , and DeepMind Blunt Reminder : The AI Bottleneck Is Us – The Cherry Creek News
    thecherrycreeknews.com
  • 2d
    Latest open artifacts (#25): DeepSeek v4.1 Flash 1017, American-made models
    www.interconnects.ai
  • 2d
    DeepSeek Dials Up the Pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic With Open - Source Inference Tool
    gizmodo.com
  • 2d
    DeepSeek open-sources the inference engine behind its API. And Huawei gets equal billing with Nvidia.
    The New Stack
  • 2d
    DeepSeek Open-Sources DeepInfer, the Inference Framework Behind DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash
    MarkTechPost
  • 2d
    DHS Bans DeepSeek, but Replacing Model Won’t Erase Its History
    Bloomberg Law News
  • 2d
    DeepSeek open-sources DeepInfer software to curb AI deployment costs
    Investing.com
  • 2d
    DeepSeek open-sources DeepInfer software for running its AI models
    Quartz
  • 2d
    US orders federal agencies to remove China DeepSeek AI from their systems
    techcrunch.com
  • 2d
    US bans use of China’s DeepSeek AI tools by government agencies | Trump administration
    The Guardian
  • 2d
    U.S. Government Bans DeepSeek AI and Orders Federal Agencies to Remove All Related Tools
    CyberSecurityNews
  • 2d
    China defends DeepSeek after US ban of its AI from government systems
    AP News
  • 2d
    U.S. Bans Chinese AI Leader DeepSeek From Government Use
    https://dominotheory.com/
  • 2d
    DeepInfer: High-performance inference framework for DeepSeek models
    github.com
  • 2d
    FASCSA Orders Require Exclusion and Removal of DeepSeek AI
    Crowell & Moring LLP
  • 2d
    U.S. bans DeepSeek from government agency systems amid AI rift with China
    CNBC
  • 2d
    US government bans Chinese AI company DeepSeek that had wiped more than $1 trillion from Wall Street in l
    The Times of India
  • 2d
    US bans DeepSeek AI from government use as tech tension with China continues
    www.bbc.com
  • 2d
    DHS cracks down on China’s DeepSeek as AI competition intensifies: 'Multiple threat vectors'
    New York Post
  • 2d
    US banning Chinese AI DeepSeek from government agency IT systems
    www.reuters.com
  • 2d
    MiniMax's new M3.1 Flash beats DeepSeek and Opus 5 on a key business benchmark at lower cost — but with a high hallucination rate
    VentureBeat
  • 3d
    DHS Orders Civilian Agencies to Remove DeepSeek AI Products
    MeriTalk
  • 3d
    DeepSeek v4.1 Flash 1017 beats larger models in agentic tasks while cutting cost
    the-decoder.com
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 10h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Google98 · 1
Anthropic42 · 2
Meta22 · 0
OpenAI11 · 0

14 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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DeepSeek · Buy YesOption 10 of 18

Polymarket price · live

Yes0¢
No100¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · DeepSeek

  • News6 today · latest 11h
  • AI analysts2% · 2 pts above
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.