MarketsPerpsSmart moneyResearchPlus

 

TermsPrivacySecurityBusinessProtocolFeesStatusContact

Play Money (PM) is for play. It can't be cashed out or moved.

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

© 2026 Problee, Inc.

Recorded on Base

 

 

 

 

MarketsAI

Which company has the best AI model end of November?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 optionsCloses Dec 2, 2026Research 10h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 18 options

Google 58%Anthropic 35%OpenAI 3%Meta 1%

18 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Google58%+4.0 pts52%8 · 1
Anthropic35%−4.0 pts39%2 · 2
OpenAI3%−0.8 pts11%1 · 0
Meta1%−1.1 pts8%2 · 0
Alibaba<1%+0.2 pts2%none
SpaceXAI<1%+0.1 pts2%none
Z.ai<1%—1%none
Moonshot<1%—1%none
Xiaomi<1%+0.1 pts1%none
DeepSeek<1%+0.1 pts2%none
Baidu———none
Amazon———none
ByteDance———none
Nvidia———none
Thinky———none
Mistral———none
Meituan———none
StepFun———none

18 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 10h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google58%52%−6
Anthropic35%39%+4
OpenAI3%11%+8
Meta1%8%+7
Alibaba<1%2%+1
SpaceXAI<1%2%+1
+12 more options

AI analysts' average · OpenAI

11%

8 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

OpenAI: AI 11% vs market 3%, 8 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 10h
    PerturbAI and OpenAI use AI agents to hunt for drug targets
    The Pharma Letter
  • 11h
    Why Anthropic Is Racing to IPO While OpenAI Waits Until 2027
    AOL.com
  • 12h
    OpenAI Models on Google Cloud: What Changes for Developers
    developersdigest.tech
  • 12h
    Insight Named an OpenAI Advanced Partner to Accelerate Midmarket Enterprise AI Adoption
    AiThority
  • 12h
    AI-found bugs are expected to rise, and OpenAI has a five-stage response plan
    Help Net Security
  • 13h
    OpenAI partners with Google Cloud to offer AI models , codex workflows
    aninews.in
  • 13h
    OpenAI unleashed thousands of AI agents to study a Parkinson-like disease — here's what they found in 32 minutes
    Tom's Guide
  • 16h
    OpenAI brings AI models to Google Cloud for enterprise customers
    Tech Wire Asia
  • 17h
    An Interview with OpenAI’s Richard Ho on Why Jalapeño Is a Groundbreaking AI Chip
    Key Context by Tae Kim
  • 18h
    Which Funds Have the Largest Stakes in Anthropic and OpenAI Ahead of Their IPOs?
    Morningstar
  • 18h
    OpenAI runs 1,946 GPT-Rosalind agents on a mouse brain atlas
    R&D World
  • 19h
    Critical web security flaws spark global alarm as Google, OpenAI and Amazon respond
    CNBC
  • 19h
    OpenAI says GPT-5.6-Sol helped find the PHP flaws now shaking the internet
    Mashable
  • 19h
    OpenAI Safety Expert Returns After Months Away, Citing Rising AI Risks
    Yahoo Finance
  • 20h
    OpenAI to make its most advanced AI models available in Google Cloud
    SiliconANGLE
  • 20h
    OpenAI’s models are deliberately breaking their misalignment monitoring systems
    CSO Online
  • 20h
    Google Cloud adds OpenAI models in private preview
    TestingCatalog AI News
  • 20h
    OpenAI Asks Gov. Newsom to Strengthen AI Regulations
    The Information
  • 22h
    Frontier OpenAI Model Exposes Stunning Exploit That Leaves Millions of Web Servers Open to Attack
    Futurism
  • 22h
    OpenAI to rewrite ChatGPT ads by default as advertisers get days to opt out
    PPC Land
  • 23h
    Anthropic launches Claude Duet AI agent to rival Meta's Muse, OpenAI's Dots
    Anadolu Ajansı
  • 23h
    Claude Duet Is Anthropic's Answer To Meta Muse And OpenAI Dots
    Engadget
  • 23h
    OpenAI Wants to ‘Patch the Planet’ (With Its Own AI)
    Gizmodo
  • 23h
    OpenAI says GPT-5.6 Sol found a PHP flaw before attackers did
    PPC Land
  • 23h
    Anthropic launches Claude Duet, its answer to Meta and OpenAI's personal agents
    Business Insider
  • 1d
    Anthropic Launches Claude Duet AI Agent to Take On Meta and OpenAI
    The Tech Buzz
  • 1d
    OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 4 Argon found critical PHP flaw affecting millions of websites
    The Decoder
  • 1d
    OpenAI urges Newsom to strengthen frontier model oversight
    Pluribus News
  • 1d
    Harvard Mathematicians Divided Over AI’s Role in Research and Teaching After OpenAI Breakthrough
    The Harvard Crimson
  • 1d
    CPI | OpenAI Strikes Google Cloud Deal in Push Beyond Microsoft
    PYMNTS.com
  • 1d
    OpenAI’s most powerful AI models turned off safety monitoring – then lied about it
    ZDNET
  • 1d
    PHP Armageddon: OpenAI, Google’s Wiz find ancient holes, panicking the internet
    TechCrunch
  • 1d
    A major security flaw found using an OpenAI model is causing internet chaos
    Business Insider
  • 1d
    OpenAI GPT models are coming to Google Antigravity ‘soon,’ Cloud ‘in the coming weeks’
    9to5Google
  • 1d
    OpenAI president urges AI safeguards as group he funds opposes regulation
    Reuters
  • 1d
    OpenAI says its AI agents disabled their own safety monitors
    ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation
  • 1d
    OpenAI's GPT-6 Agent Removed Safety Monitoring, Then Falsely Denied Doing So
    The Hacker News
  • 1d
    OpenAI Says 2 Internal AI Coding Agents Turned Off Their Own Safeguards
    www.pcmag.com
  • 1d
    OpenAI president backs political group opposing AI restrictions
    The Journal Record
  • 1d
    OpenAI models disable misalignment monitoring and suppress alerts
    alignment.openai.com
  • 1d
    OpenAI models disabled their own safety monitoring and lied about it
    www.cnbc.com
  • 1d
    OpenAI Says AI Found One Of The Biggest Web Weaknesses Ever
    Forbes
  • 1d
    OpenAI Models in Google Cloud
    cloud.google.com
  • 1d
    OpenAI says an AI agent lied about disabling its safety monitoring system
    The Verge
  • 1d
    OpenAI is rolling out ChatGPT ads in 26 more countries, bringing its total to 89
    Quartz
  • 1d
    OpenAI acquired biotech startup Orchestra Bio to expand its life sciences AI tools
    Quartz
  • 1d
    OpenAI expands ChatGPT ads to 26 more countries in bid to boost revenue
    Reuters
  • 1d
    OpenAI expands ChatGPT Ads to 26 new countries as diversification push accelerates
    CNBC
  • 1d
    OpenAI Expands ChatGPT Ads to 26 More Countries, Says It Has More Than 100,000 Advertisers
    The Information
  • 1d
    OpenAI expands Google Cloud access as AI rivals deepen ties
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Google Cloud expands model choice and flexibility, bringing OpenAI models to customers
    Google Cloud
  • 1d
    OpenAI brings its frontier models to rival Google Cloud
    Axios
  • 1d
    OpenAI to sell its top models on Google Cloud in latest enterprise push
    Reuters
  • 1d
    OpenAI to bring AI models to Google's cloud, in further expansion beyond Microsoft
    CNBC
  • 1d
    OpenAI models are coming to Google Cloud
    OpenAI News
  • 1d
    OpenAI Says Its Agents Weakened System That Flags AI Misbehavior
    Bloomberg.com
  • 1d
    ‘Freeze AI Now’: Bay Area Activists Rally Outside OpenAI Headquarters
    KQED
  • 2d
    What can and can't be said about revenues at OpenAI and Anthropic
    deepquarry.substack.com
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's AI rankings traders by 3-month profit · updated 6h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Google98 · 1
Anthropic42 · 2
Meta22 · 0
OpenAI11 · 0

14 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
Sign in to comment

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Related Markets

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31?

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31?

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31?

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?

OpenAI · Buy YesOption 3 of 18

Polymarket price · live

Yes3¢
No98¢
Trade on Polymarket

Opens Polymarket in a new tab. Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket and never holds your money.

Before you decide · OpenAI

  • News25 today · latest 10h
  • AI analysts11% · 8 pts above
  • Tiers 1–21 Yes · 0 No
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.