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Which company has the best AI model end of November?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 optionsCloses Dec 2, 2026

Polymarket price · top 4 of 18 options

Google 58%Anthropic 35%OpenAI 3%Meta 1%

18 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Google58%+4.0 pts52%8 · 1
Anthropic35%−4.0 pts39%2 · 2
OpenAI3%−0.8 pts11%1 · 0
Meta1%−1.1 pts8%2 · 0
Alibaba<1%+0.2 pts2%none
SpaceXAI<1%+0.1 pts2%none
Z.ai<1%—1%none
Moonshot<1%—1%none
Xiaomi<1%+0.1 pts1%none
DeepSeek<1%+0.1 pts2%none
Baidu———none
Amazon———none
ByteDance———none
Nvidia———none
Thinky———none
Mistral———none
Meituan———none
StepFun———none

18 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google58%52%−6
Anthropic35%39%+4
OpenAI3%11%+8
Meta1%8%+7
Alibaba<1%2%+1
SpaceXAI<1%2%+1
+12 more options

AI analysts' average · Mistral

—

Biggest gap

OpenAI: AI 11% vs market 3%, 8 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 15h
    Mistral Voxtral 3: Speech AI Hits $0.0035/Min [2026]
    shattered.io
  • 19h
    CERN e Mistral AI , nasce Flare : lintelligenza artificiale per esplorare i segreti delluniverso
    dazebaonews.it
  • 22h
    Mistral AI, NVIDIA Expand Partnership Into Engineering Simulation
    www.tokenpost.com
  • 1d
    CERN Partners With Mistral to Build a New Kind of AI for Physics
    HPCwire
  • 1d
    Mistral and Nvidia want to speed up industrial design with physics AI
    The Decoder
  • 1d
    Mistral Advances AI for Engineering with Nvidia
    mistral.ai
  • 1d
    Ecosia Ditches Mistral, Cuts AI Costs 50% [2026]
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 1d
    Mistral's Voxtral 3 Lands a #3 Transcribe Model and a $13 Voice
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    Mistral AI launches Voxtral 3, a full voice agent stack that listens, thinks, and talks in real time
    The Decoder
  • 2d
    Mercury 3 vs Mistral Large 4: Two Unfinished Models and the Promises Attached to Each
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    Mistral AI lance Timestral , une famille de modèles IA de prévision de 209 millions de paramètres qui surpasse le TimesFM - 3 de Google
    intelligence-artificielle.developpez.com
  • 2d
    Mistral AI: Sovereign AI and a €21bn Valuation Push
    AI Magazine
  • 2d
    Crédit Agricole partners with Mistral for industrial-scale AI deployment
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 3d
    Mistral Timestral: 209M Model Tops Google TimesFM-3 [2026]
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 3d
    CERN and Mistral AI team up on AI for physics
    Greater Geneva Bern area (GGBa)
  • 3d
    Mistral AI Releases Timestral: A 209M Forecasting Model Family That Outperforms Google’s TimesFM-3
    MarkTechPost
  • 6d
    CERN and Mistral plan an AI foundation model for particle physics
    The Next Web
  • 6d
    Build or surrender in the AI race, Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch tells Europe
    Cybernews
  • 6d
    Timestral open weight timeseries foundation models from Mistral
    huggingface.co
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Google98 · 1
Anthropic42 · 2
Meta22 · 0
OpenAI11 · 0

14 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Mistral · Buy YesOption 16 of 18

Polymarket price · live

Yes0¢
No—
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Before you decide · Mistral

  • News3 today · latest 15h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.