MarketsElections
Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN46 optionsResearch 3d ago
Marine Le Pen 46%David Lisnard 17%Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14%Édouard Philippe 8%
46 optionsby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsBuy
Anasse KazibNo smart money
46 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Marine Le Pen46%42%−4
David Lisnard17%7%−10
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%9%−5
Édouard Philippe8%12%+4
Christine Lagarde7%2%−5
Raphaël Glucksmann2%4%+2
+40 more options
AI analysts' average · Teddy Riner
—
Your forecast on Teddy Riner
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Marine Le PenYes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 5 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 05 · 0
David LisnardNo tunatylertunatyler: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 tunatylertunatyler: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2mountaindewdmountaindewd: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
Raphaël GlucksmannYes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
Jean-Luc MélenchonNo GohstGohst: Tier 2, #41 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 GohstGohst: Tier 2, #41 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Édouard PhilippeYes lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Christine LagardeYes lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
40 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Teddy Riner resolves Yes if Teddy Riner wins the next French presidential election (expected around April 2027, or earlier if called early), including any second round. A consensus of credible reporting decides. If that is ambiguous, the official results of the Ministry of the Interior decide. If results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other' and every named option resolves No.
- Watch out
- If the results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other', so every named candidate resolves No. Any second round counts.
- Resolution criteria
- The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Sign in to comment
