QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Fed Decision in December?25 bps increaseEnds in 29d25 bps increase86%6.079%−719 Yes1 NoFed Decision in January?No changeEnds in 78dNo change52%27.052%05 Yes3 NoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?2 (50 bps)$68.5K 24h volEnds in 51d2 (50 bps)85%6.075%−105 Yes2 NoFed Decision in March?25 bps increase$31.4K 24h volEnds in 127d25 bps increase54%17.033%−214 Yes0 NoECB Interest Rates: December 202625 bps increase$19.5K 24h volEnds in 36d25 bps increase92%7.590%−21 Yes1 NoBank of England decision in December?25 bps increase$10.4K 24h volEnds in 37d25 bps increase60%17.042%−181 Yes1 NoECB Interest Rates: February 2027No Change$7K 24h volEnds in 86dNo Change83%6.083%01 Yes1 NoBank of Japan Decision in December?25 bps increase$6.2K 24h volEnds in 37d25 bps increase88%10.080%−81 Yes0 NoSwiss National Bank decision in December?No Change$6.1K 24h volEnds in 29dNo Change88%3.51 Yes1 NoBank of Russia Decision in February?No Change$5.7K 24h volEnds in 94dNo Change47%9.50 Yes1 NoBank of Korea Decision in January?No Change$5.5K 24h volEnds in 65dNo Change45%15.538%−7noneHow many dissent at the December Fed meeting?0$4.4K 24h volEnds in 29d060%11.03 Yes2 NoFed Decision in April?No change$3.8K 24h volEnds in 169dNo change66%0.566%03 Yes0 NoPeople's Bank of China rate change by December 31?No Change$3.4K 24h volEnds in 50dNo Change92%2.00 Yes1 NoBank of Korea Decision in February?25 bps increase$2.9K 24h volEnds in 107d25 bps increase66%10.0noneBank of Mexico Decision in December?No change$2.3K 24h volEnds in 37dNo change90%2.587%−31 Yes1 NoBank of Canada Decision in December?No ChangeEnds in 28dNo Change65%5.557%−81 Yes1 NoSouth African Reserve Bank Decision in March?No Change$1.8K 24h volEnds in 128dNo Change37%2.5noneReserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?25 bps increase$1.5K 24h volEnds in 28d25 bps increase86%10.01 Yes0 NoSwiss National Bank Decision in June?No Change$1.4K 24h volEnds in 226dNo Change65%17.558%−70 Yes1 NoReserve Bank of India decision in December25 bps increase$1.3K 24h volEnds in 23d25 bps increase82%1.50 Yes1 NoReserve Bank of Australia Decision in February?No Change$1.2K 24h volEnds in 91dNo Change86%0.5noneBank of Japan Decision in January?No Change$1.1K 24h volEnds in 73dNo Change81%8.0noneBank of Russia decision in December?No change$1K 24h volEnds in 38dNo change83%0.50 Yes1 No
