QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Fed Decision in December?25 bps increaseEnds in 29d25 bps increase86%6.079%−719 Yes1 NoFed Decision in January?No changeEnds in 78dNo change52%27.052%05 Yes3 No2hTrump’s Fed nightmare: Rates won’t be slashed. They could surge nowSMH.com.auOctober Inflation US - Annual3.7%$101.4K 24h volEnds in 1h3.7%97%3.385%−120 Yes1 NoFed Decision in March?25 bps increase$31.4K 24h volEnds in 127d25 bps increase54%17.033%−214 Yes0 NoECB Interest Rates: December 202625 bps increase$19.5K 24h volEnds in 36d25 bps increase92%7.590%−21 Yes1 NoBank of England decision in December?25 bps increase$10.4K 24h volEnds in 37d25 bps increase60%17.042%−181 Yes1 NoECB Interest Rates: February 2027No Change$7K 24h volEnds in 86dNo Change83%6.083%01 Yes1 NoWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?↑ 4.25%Ends in 50d↑ 4.25%95%14.087%−83 Yes1 No1hAsian Bond Yields Rise on Growing Expectations for Fed Rate HikeWSJBank of Russia Decision in February?No Change$5.7K 24h volEnds in 94dNo Change47%9.50 Yes1 NoNovember Unemployment Rate4.1%$5.5K 24h volEnds in 23d4.1%44%0.00 Yes1 NoHow high will inflation get in 2026?Above 4.5%Ends in 51dAbove 4.5%10%0.514%+4noneCore CPI YoY - October 20262.6%$4.2K 24h volEnds in 1h2.6%96%0.855%−411 Yes0 NoFed Decision in April?No change$3.8K 24h volEnds in 169dNo change66%0.566%03 Yes0 NoPeople's Bank of China rate change by December 31?No Change$3.4K 24h volEnds in 51dNo Change92%2.00 Yes1 NoCore PCE YoY - October 20263.3%$3.3K 24h volEnds in 14d3.3%40%11.00 Yes1 NoCore PCE MoM - October 20260.3%$2.9K 24h volEnds in 14d0.3%44%4.50 Yes1 NoJapan Core CPI YoY in 2026≤1.9%Ends in 73d≤1.9%89%2.787%−21 Yes0 NoSouth Korea Annual Inflation 20262.7% to 2.9%$2.3K 24h volEnds in 51d2.7% to 2.9%39%8.10 Yes1 NoBank of Mexico Decision in December?No change$2.3K 24h volEnds in 37dNo change90%2.587%−31 Yes1 NoArgentina Annual Inflation 202630.0-34.9%$1.9K 24h volEnds in 61d30.0-34.9%92%3.5noneHow many jobs added in November?75k to 100k$1.7K 24h volEnds in 23d75k to 100k19%0.00 Yes1 NoJOLTS Job Openings: October 20267.5M to 7.6M$1.2K 24h volEnds in 20d7.5M to 7.6M14%1.018%+40 Yes1 NoOctober Inflation UK - Annual3.7-3.9%$1.2K 24h volEnds in 7d3.7-3.9%55%0.045%−10Bank of Russia decision in December?No change$1K 24h volEnds in 38dNo change83%0.50 Yes1 No
