QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Fed Decision in December?25 bps increaseEnds in 29d25 bps increase86%6.079%−719 Yes1 NoFed Decision in January?No changeEnds in 78dNo change52%27.052%05 Yes3 NoAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?Ends in 29d96%13.284%−126 Yes3 NoHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?0 (0 bps)Ends in 51d0 (0 bps)98%0.49 Yes2 NoFed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–Hike$56K 24h volEnds in 29dHike–Pause–Hike96%14.675%−216 Yes0 NoFed decisions (Oct-Jan)Pause-Hike-Pause$32.2K 24h volEnds in 78dPause-Hike-Pause55%20.568%+133 Yes5 NoFed Decision in March?25 bps increase$31.4K 24h volEnds in 127d25 bps increase55%16.533%−224 Yes0 NoHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 4.55%$11.6K 24h volEnds in 50dBelow 4.55%53%28.545%−80 Yes2 NoHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 4.8%Ends in 51dBelow 4.8%62%8.585%+23noneWhat will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?4.25%$10.2K 24h volEnds in 51d4.25%85%5.882%−35 Yes2 NoHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.4%Ends in 51d5.4%13%6.033%+202 Yes1 NoHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 5.25%$8.4K 24h volEnds in 50dBelow 5.25%78%10.52 Yes0 NoHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.00%$5.8K 24h volEnds in 50d5.00%38%3.0noneWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?↑ 4.25%Ends in 50d↑ 4.25%95%14.087%−83 Yes1 No2hAsian Bond Yields Rise on Growing Expectations for Fed Rate HikeWSJFed rate cut by...?April 2027 Meeting$5.5K 24h volEnds in 444dApril 2027 Meeting47%1.017%−30noneHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November?Below 4.82%$5.1K 24h volEnds in 20dBelow 4.82%22%45.01 Yes1 NoHow many dissent at the December Fed meeting?0$4.5K 24h volEnds in 29d060%13.53 Yes2 NoFed Decision in April?No change$3.8K 24h volEnds in 169dNo change66%0.566%03 Yes0 NoHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.50%$3.1K 24h volEnds in 50d5.50%51%0.50 Yes1 NoHow high will 2-year Treasury yield go in November?4.80%$2.4K 24h volEnds in 20d4.80%55%35.5noneHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get in November?Below 5.20%$2.3K 24h volEnds in 20dBelow 5.20%29%30.00 Yes1 NoHow low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 4.40%$1.9K 24h volEnds in 51dBelow 4.40%51%10.0noneHow low will 2-year Treasury yield get in November?Below 4.44%$1.8K 24h volEnds in 20dBelow 4.44%9%36.52 Yes0 NoHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?Below 4.59%$1.3K 24h volEnds in 20dBelow 4.59%22%39.01 Yes0 No
