QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 318%0.511%+32 Yes6 NoWill Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Ends in 51d8%0.00 Yes1 NoWill Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 51d3%0.14%+10 Yes3 NoWhich countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Saudi ArabiaEnds in 51dSaudi Arabia3%0.03%0noneHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 9?170-189$675.9 24h volEnds in 5d170-18928%5.5noneHouthis enter Aden by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 3111%0.01 Yes0 NoHouthis successfully target shipping by...?November 30$170 24h volEnds in 20dNovember 3024%4.5noneAbdul-Malik al-Houthi out by...?December 31$18.9 24h volEnds in 51dDecember 3111%3.0noneHouthis seize an oil tanker by...?November 30$0 24h volEnds in 20dNovember 303%0.6none0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?$0 24h volEnds in 51d6%0.0nonePanama Canal effectively closed by...?December 31$0 24h volEnds in 51dDecember 317%0.0none
