QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gadi Eizenkot$403.3K 24h volTradingGadi Eizenkot61%2.55 Yes6 NoIsraeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)December 31Ends in 51dDecember 3124%2.025%+10 Yes1 NoWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Ends in 51d1%0.10 Yes5 NoWho will be the next Speaker of the Knesset?Matan Kahana$14.8K 24h volEnds in 110dMatan Kahana94%54.090%−4noneWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 51d3%0.10 Yes7 NoMajor airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?January 31, 2027$10.1K 24h volEnds in 82dJanuary 31, 202730%6.528%−20 Yes1 NoIsraeli Knesset election annulled?Ends in 51d1%0.71%0noneWhich country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?SomalilandEnds in 51dSomaliland10%0.09%−10 Yes1 NoNext Israeli government formed by...?December 31, 2026Ends in 232dDecember 31, 202641%3.540%−10 Yes1 NoIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?$6.5K 24h volTrading30%1.05 Yes0 NoMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 319%2.014%+5noneWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?$5K 24h volEnds in 232d13%1.00 Yes2 NoWhich parties will be in the next Israeli government?TogetherEnds in 232dTogether84%7.082%−2none1hNetanyahu warns against forming 'dangerous govt' with Arab partiesRediffNetanyahu out by...?June 30, 2027Ends in 232dJune 30, 202769%2.545%−24noneWho will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?No second mandate$3.8K 24h volEnds in 416dNo second mandate47%0.045%−2noneWill Hamas agree to disarm by...?$3K 24h volEnds in 51d5%0.04%−14 Yes3 NoWhich coalition will form the next Israeli government?Other$2.7K 24h volEnds in 416dOther48%0.565%+171 Yes0 NoNext Israeli government # of seats?<58$2.2K 24h volEnds in 416d<5862%0.558%−4noneNext Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?Yair LapidEnds in 110dYair Lapid38%0.022%−160 Yes1 NoNext Israeli Minister of Interior?No Next Minister by Feb 28$2K 24h volEnds in 110dNo Next Minister by Feb 2835%2.537%+21 Yes0 NoIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?December 31, 2027$1.5K 24h volEnds in 51dDecember 31, 202733%1.0noneNext Israeli Minister of Justice?No Next Minister by Feb 28Ends in 110dNo Next Minister by Feb 2835%1.541%+6noneFall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US SenateLula, Eizenkot, Dems$1.4K 24h volTradingLula, Eizenkot, Dems62%4.40 Yes4 NoNext Israeli Minister of Finance?No Next Minister by Feb 28Ends in 110dNo Next Minister by Feb 2829%4.035%+6none
