QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 51d14%22.027%+134 Yes4 No16mImpeachment Live Updates: House Reads Accusations Against Pete HegsethThe New York TimesStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Ends in 20d2%1.82 Yes5 No6mUKMTO reports tanker incident in Strait of Hormuzmarketscreener.comNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?December 31, 2026Ends in 51dDecember 31, 202638%1.539%+11 Yes0 NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?December 31$76.6K 24h volEnds in 51dDecember 3112%0.06%−60 Yes4 NoCrude Oil all time high by...?March 31, 2027Ends in 141dMarch 31, 202714%1.510%−41 Yes3 NoUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 3133%1.028%−51 Yes1 NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 51d9%1.08%−13 Yes13 NoWhere will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?No Meeting by December 31$34.1K 24h volEnds in 50dNo Meeting by December 3162%2.558%−4noneIsraeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)December 31Ends in 51dDecember 3124%2.025%+10 Yes1 NoBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 318%0.511%+32 Yes6 NoIran full airspace closure by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 3121%2.033%+121 Yes3 NoIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 3123%6.025%+20 Yes1 NoIran leadership change by...?June 30, 2027Ends in 232dJune 30, 202720%3.024%+41 Yes1 NoIran leader end of 2026?Mojtaba KhameneiEnds in 51dMojtaba Khamenei94%0.25 Yes0 NoWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Ends in 51d1%0.10 Yes5 NoWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 51d3%0.10 Yes7 NoIran Nuke before 2027?Ends in 51d3%0.81 Yes1 NoMajor airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?January 31, 2027$10.1K 24h volEnds in 82dJanuary 31, 202730%6.528%−20 Yes1 NoUS reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 3126%4.526%01 Yes0 NoWill Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Ends in 51d8%0.00 Yes1 NoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$6.6K 24h volEnds in 51d4%0.63%−13 Yes2 NoMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 319%2.014%+5noneWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?$5K 24h volEnds in 232d13%1.00 Yes2 NoWhat will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)$4.8K 24h volEnds in 51dUranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)15%2.01 Yes2 No
