QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gadi Eizenkot$403.3K 24h volTradingGadi Eizenkot61%2.55 Yes6 NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?December 31$76.6K 24h volEnds in 51dDecember 3112%0.06%−60 Yes4 NoIran leader end of 2026?Mojtaba KhameneiEnds in 51dMojtaba Khamenei94%0.25 Yes0 NoWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Ends in 51d1%0.10 Yes5 NoWho will be the next Speaker of the Knesset?Matan Kahana$14.8K 24h volEnds in 110dMatan Kahana94%54.090%−4noneWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 51d3%0.10 Yes7 NoIran Nuke before 2027?Ends in 51d3%0.81 Yes1 NoMajor airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?January 31, 2027$10.1K 24h volEnds in 82dJanuary 31, 202730%6.528%−20 Yes1 NoWill Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Ends in 51d8%0.00 Yes1 NoWhich country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?SomalilandEnds in 51dSomaliland10%0.09%−10 Yes1 NoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$6.6K 24h volEnds in 51d4%0.63%−13 Yes2 NoMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?December 31Ends in 51dDecember 319%2.014%+5noneWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?$5K 24h volEnds in 232d13%1.00 Yes2 NoNetanyahu out by...?June 30, 2027Ends in 232dJune 30, 202769%2.545%−24noneWho will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?No second mandate$3.8K 24h volEnds in 416dNo second mandate47%0.045%−2noneWhich coalition will form the next Israeli government?Other$2.7K 24h volEnds in 416dOther48%0.565%+171 Yes0 NoNext Israeli government # of seats?<58$2.2K 24h volEnds in 416d<5862%0.558%−4noneUSD x Iranian rials End of December?2.5 - 3.0M$2.1K 24h volEnds in 51d2.5 - 3.0M43%0.01 Yes0 NoNext Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?Yair LapidEnds in 110dYair Lapid38%0.022%−160 Yes1 NoNext Israeli Minister of Interior?No Next Minister by Feb 28$2K 24h volEnds in 110dNo Next Minister by Feb 2835%2.537%+21 Yes0 NoUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?$1.9K 24h volEnds in 51d2%0.71%−10 Yes2 NoWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$1.9K 24h volEnds in 51d6%0.42 Yes2 NoNext Israeli Minister of Justice?No Next Minister by Feb 28Ends in 110dNo Next Minister by Feb 2835%1.541%+6noneNext Israeli Minister of Finance?No Next Minister by Feb 28Ends in 110dNo Next Minister by Feb 2829%4.035%+6none
