QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Alaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola (D)$219.4K 24h volTradingMary Peltola (D)99%0.113 Yes4 NoNext Senate Majority Leader?Chuck Schumer$168.3K 24h volTradingChuck Schumer83%8.04 Yes2 NoWhich Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)None$63.3K 24h volTradingNone>99%0.220 Yes1 NoNC-03 House Election WinnerRaymond Smith Jr. (D)$60.8K 24h volTradingRaymond Smith Jr. (D)99%13.418 Yes2 NoMississippi Senate Election WinnerScott Colom (D)$57.6K 24h volTradingScott Colom (D)>99%0.36 Yes4 NoSpeaker of the House after the midterms?Hakeem Jeffries$30.2K 24h volTradingHakeem Jeffries95%1.01 Yes1 NoNC-05 House Election WinnerChuck Hubbard (D)$24.2K 24h volTradingChuck Hubbard (D)>99%2.35 Yes0 NoNext US Senate Minority Leader?John Thune$17.8K 24h volEnds in 53dJohn Thune>99%19.985%−141 Yes1 No2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of VictoryDemocrats 14-16%$15.9K 24h volTradingDemocrats 14-16%90%5.21 Yes1 NoMN-01 House Election WinnerJake Johnson (D)$15.2K 24h volTradingJake Johnson (D)96%0.15 Yes1 NoAlaska Governor Election WinnerJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins$12K 24h volTradingJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins>99%0.28 Yes3 NoHouse Minority Leader of the next Congress?Jim Jordan$11.4K 24h volTradingJim Jordan99%41.91 Yes0 NoAK-AL House Election WinnerRepublican Party$9.6K 24h volTradingRepublican Party89%5.14 Yes2 NoCO-04 House Election WinnerEileen Laubacher (D)$9.2K 24h volTradingEileen Laubacher (D)>99%0.15 Yes1 NoFL-25 House Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 3-6%$5.4K 24h volTradingDemocrat 3-6%55%0.51 Yes0 No2026 Midterms: House Turnout120-125m$5.1K 24h volTrading120-125m76%8.01 Yes0 NoNC-07 House Election WinnerDavid Rouzer (R)$4.8K 24h volTradingDavid Rouzer (R)98%0.61 Yes1 NoRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)175-179$4.7K 24h volTrading175-17975%6.41 Yes0 NoFL-14 House Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 3-6%$3.5K 24h volTradingDemocrat 3-6%61%11.0noneFL-22 House Election Margin of VictoryDemocrat 3-6%$2.9K 24h volTradingDemocrat 3-6%>99%15.5noneRepublican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)44$2.8K 24h volTrading4499%0.34 Yes0 NoCA-23 House Election WinnerJay Obernolte (R)$2.4K 24h volTradingJay Obernolte (R)98%0.44 Yes3 NoMT-02 House Election Margin of VictoryRepublican 25-30%$1.9K 24h volTradingRepublican 25-30%89%42.5noneKansas Governor Election WinnerCindy Holscher (D)$1.6K 24h volTradingCindy Holscher (D)99%0.04 Yes1 No
