QuestionChancePolymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hHow the price moved today, in points.AI analystsThe average of the AI analysts' probabilities. Open a market to see each analyst's number.GapAI minus market, in points. A big gap is a lead to check.Smart money, Tiers 1–2How many of the topic's Tier 1 and Tier 2 traders hold Yes No: its ranks 1–50 by 3-month P&L, after removing bots, market makers and wash traders
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 51d12%22.027%+154 Yes4 NoPete Hegseth impeached by...?March 31, 2027Ends in 141dMarch 31, 202761%23.072%+111 Yes0 No2hMovement to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stopped for nowCBS NewsNext Senate Majority Leader?Chuck Schumer$163.7K 24h volTradingChuck Schumer83%8.04 Yes2 NoSpeaker of the House after the midterms?Hakeem Jeffries$33.8K 24h volTradingHakeem Jeffries94%0.11 Yes1 NoTrump out as President before 2027?Ends in 51d2%0.10 Yes2 No51mStephen Miller stepped into an even more powerful role in the Trump administration. Monday was his first day as White House chief of staff, after President Trump announced Friday that he was replacing Susie Wiles. Miller was a key player in Trump’s first admiInstagramNext US Senate Minority Leader?John Thune$17.8K 24h volEnds in 53dJohn Thune>99%15.985%−141 Yes1 NoWhich of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?Pete Hegseth$15.9K 24h volEnds in 416dPete Hegseth48%27.060%+12noneHouse Minority Leader of the next Congress?Jim Jordan$11.8K 24h volTradingJim Jordan95%38.31 Yes0 NoTrump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Ends in 51d3%0.02%−11 Yes1 NoWill Trump be impeached by...?December 31, 2027$5.9K 24h volEnds in 51dDecember 31, 202756%2.052%−4noneGovernment shutdown by...?December 31$4.8K 24h volEnds in 51dDecember 3141%6.538%−3noneHow many Trump vetoes overridden by December 31, 2027?0$3.7K 24h volEnds in 416d048%5.5noneInsurrection Act invoked by...?$1.5K 24h volEnds in 51d6%0.05%−1noneTrump impeached and removed before 2028?$1.4K 24h volEnds in 416d18%0.23%−151 Yes0 NoAlaska Senator sworn in by January 5?$212 24h volEnds in 56d65%30.6noneWill Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?$129.6 24h volEnds in 83d52%1.0noneHouse Majority Leader of the next Congress?Katherine Clark$94.3 24h volEnds in 53dKatherine Clark96%0.394%−2noneNew US State admitted during Trump's term?$67.4 24h volEnds in 802d3%2.5noneHow many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?5-9$8 24h volEnds in 416d5-929%0.0noneWill the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?$0 24h volEnds in 54d97%1.31 Yes0 No
